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Stoetwegen； was the best counselor I found。 He was shrewd； keen；
and kindly； but his tongue was sharpso much so that it finally
brought about his recall。 He made a remark one day which
especially impressed me。 I had said to him； 〃I have just sent a
despatch to my government declaring my skepticism as to the
probability of any war in Europe for a considerable time to come。
When I arrived in Berlin eleven years ago all the knowing people
said that a general European war must break out within a few
months： in the spring they said it must come in the autumn； and
in the autumn they said it must come in the spring。 All these
years have passed and there is still no sign of war。 We hear the
same prophecies daily； but I learned long since not to believe in
them。 War may come； but it seems to me more and more unlikely。〃
He answered； 〃I think you are right。 I advise my own government
in the same sense。 The fact is that war in these days is not what
it once was； it is infinitely more dangerous from every point of
view； and it becomes more and more so every day。 Formerly a
crowned head； when he thought himself aggrieved； or felt that he
would enjoy a campaign； plunged into war gaily。 If he succeeded；
all was well； if not； he hauled off to repair damages；very much
as a pugilist would do after receiving a black eye in a fist
fight；and in a short time the losses were repaired and all went
on as before。 In these days the case is different： it is no
longer a simple contest in the open； with the possibility of a
black eye or； at most； of a severe bruise； it has become a matter
of life and death to whole nations。 Instead of being like a fist
fight； it is like a combat between a lot of champions armed with
poisoned daggers； and in a dark room； if once the struggle
begins； no one knows how many will be drawn into it or who will
be alive at the end of it； the probabilities are that all will be
injured terribly and several fatally。 War in these days means the
cropping up of a multitude of questions dangerous not only to
statesmen but to monarchs； and even to society itself。 Monarchs
and statesmen know this well； and； no matter how truculent they
may at times appear； they really dread war above all things。〃
One of my colleagues at St。 Petersburg was interesting in a very
different way from any of the others。 This was Pasitch； the
Servian minister。 He was a man of fine presence and； judging from
his conversation； of acute mind。 He had some years before been
sentenced to death for treason； but since that had been prime
minister。 Later he was again put on trial for his life at
Belgrade； charged with being a partner in the conspiracy which
resulted in the second attempt against the life of King Milan。
His speech before his judges； recently published； was an effort
worthy of a statesman； and carried the conviction to my mind that
he was not guilty。＇3＇
＇3＇ He was found guilty； but escaped death by a bitter
humiliation： it was left for others to bring about Milan's
assassination。
The representatives of the extreme Orient were both interesting
personages； but the same difference prevailed there as elsewhere：
the Chinese was a mandarin； able to speak only through an
interpreter； the Japanese was trained in Western science； and
able to speak fluently both Russian and French。 His successor；
whom I met at the Peace Conference of The Hague； spoke English
admirably。
Among the secretaries and attaches； several were very
interesting； and of these was the first British secretary Henry
Howard； now Sir Henry Howard； minister at The Hague。 He and his
American wife were among the most delightful of associates。
Another in this category was the Bavarian secretary； Baron
Guttenberg； whom I often met later at Berlin。 When I spoke to him
about a visit I had made to Wurzburg； and the desecration of the
magnificent old Romanesque cathedral there by plastering its
whole interior over with nude angels； and substituting for the
splendid old mediaeval carving Louis Quinze woodwork in white and
gold； he said： 〃Yes； you are right； and it was a bishop of my
family who did it。〃
As to Russian statesmen； I had the benefit of the fairly friendly
spirit which has usually been shown toward the American
representative in Russia by all in authority from the Emperor
down。 I do not mean by this that the contentions of the American
Embassy are always met by speedy concessions； for among the most
trying of all things in diplomatic dealings with that country are
the long delays in all business； but a spirit is shown which； in
the long run； serves the purpose of our representative as regards
most questions。
It seems necessary here to give a special warning against putting
any trust in the epigram which has long done duty as a piece of
politico…ethnological wisdom： 〃Scratch a Russian and you will
find a Tartar。〃 It would be quite as correct to say； 〃Scratch an
American and you will find an Indian。〃 The simple fact is that
the Russian officials with whom foreigners have to do are men of
experience； and； as a rule； much like those whom one finds in
similar positions in other parts of Europe。 A foreign
representative has to meet on business； not merely the Russian
minister of foreign affairs and the heads of departments in the
Foreign Office； but various other members of the imperial
cabinet； especially the ministers of finance； of war； of the
navy； of the interior； of justice； as well as the chief municipal
authorities of St。 Petersburg； and I can say that many of these
gentlemen； both as men and as officials； are the peers of men in
similar positions in most other countries which I have known。
Though they were at times tenacious in questions between their
own people and ours； and though they held political doctrines
very different from those we cherish； I am bound to say that most
of them did so in a way which disarmed criticism。 At the same
time I must confess a conviction which has more and more grown
upon me； that the popular view regarding the power； vigor； and
foresight of Russian statesmen is ill…founded。 And it must be
added that Russian officials and their families are very
susceptible to social influences： a foreign representative who
entertains them frequently and well can secure far more for his
country than one who trusts to argument alone。 In no part of the
world will a diplomatist more surely realize the truth embedded
in Oxenstiern's famous utterance； 〃Go forth； my son； and see with
how little wisdom the world is governed。〃 When one sees what
really strong men might do in Russia； what vast possibilities
there are which year after year are utterly neglected； one cannot
but think that the popular impression regarding the superiority
of Russian statesmen is badly based。 As a matter of fact； there
has not been a statesman of the first class； of Russian birth；
since Catherine the Great； and none of the second class unless
Nesselrode and the Emperor Nicholas are to be excepted。 To
consider Prince Gortchakoff a great chancellor on account of his
elaborate despatches is absurd。 The noted epigram regarding him
is doubtless just： 〃C'est un Narcisse qui se mire dans son
encrier。〃
To call him a great statesman in the time of Cavour Bismarck；
Lincoln； and Seward is preposterous。 Whatever growth in
civilization Russia has made in the last forty years has been
mainly in spite of the men who have posed as her statesmen； the
atmosphere of Russian autocracy is fatal to greatness in any
form。
The emancipation of the serfs was due to a policy advocated by
the first Nicholas and carried out under Alexander II； but it was
made possible mainly by Miloutine； Samarine； Tcherkassky； and
other subordinates； who never were allowed to approach the first
rank as state servants。 This is my own judgment； founded on
observation and reading during half a century； and it is the
quiet judgment of many who have had occasion to observe Russia
longer and more carefully。
Next； as to the Foreign Office。 Nearly a hundred years ago
Napoleon compared Alexander I and those about him to 〃Greeks of
the Lower Empire。〃 That saying was repelled as a slander； but；
ever since it was uttered； the Russian Foreign Office seems to
have been laboring to deserve it。 There are chancelleries in the
world which； when they giv