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conference triumphant； and the German Emperor will be looked upon
as； after all； the arbiter of Europe。 Everybody knows that France
has never wished arbitration； and that Russian statesmen are
really； at heart； none too ardent for it。 Come forward； then； and
make the matter thoroughly your own； and； having done this；
maintain your present attitude strongly as regards the two other
matters above named；that is； the immunity from seizure of
private property on the high seas； and the throwing open of our
proceedings；and the honors of the whole conference is yours。〃
He seemed impressed by all this； and took a different tone from
any which has been noted in him since we came together。 I then
asked him if he had heard Baron d'Estournelles's story。 He said
that he had not。 I told it to him； as given in my diary
yesterday； and said； 〃You see there what the failure to obtain a
result which is really so much longed for by all the peoples of
the world will do to promote the designs of the socialistic
forces which are so powerful in all parts of the Continent； and
nowhere more so than in Germany and the nations allied with her。〃
This； too； seemed to impress him。 I then went on to say； 〃This is
not all。 By opposing arbitration； you not only put a club into
the hands of socialists； anarchists； and all the other
anti…social forces； but you alienate the substantial middle class
and the great body of religious people in all nations。 You have
no conception of the depth of feeling on this subject which
exists in my own country； to say nothing of others； and if
Germany stands in the way； the distrust of her which Americans
have felt； and which as minister and ambassador at Berlin I have
labored so hard to dispel； will be infinitely increased。 It will
render more and more difficult the maintenance of proper
relations between the two countries。 Your sovereign will be
looked upon as the enemy of all nations； and will be exposed to
every sort of attack and calumny； while the young Emperor of
Russia will become a popular idol throughout the world； since he
will represent to the popular mind； and even to the minds of
great bodies of thinking and religious people； the effort to
prevent war and to solve public questions as much as possible
without bloodshed； while the Emperor of Germany will represent to
their minds the desire to solve all great questions by force。
Mind； I don't say this is a just view： I only say that it is the
view sure to be taken； and that by resisting arbitration here you
are playing the game of Russia； as you yourself have stated
itthat is； you are giving Russia the moral support of the whole
world at the expense of the neighboring powers； and above all of
Germany。〃
I then took up an argument which； it is understood； has had much
influence with the Emperor；namely； that arbitration must be in
derogation of his sovereignty；and asked； 〃How can any such
derogation be possible？ Your sovereign would submit only such
questions to the arbitration tribunal as he thought best； and；
more than all that； you have already committed yourselves to the
principle。 You are aware that Bismarck submitted the question of
the Caroline Islands for arbitration to the Pope； and the first
Emperor William consented to act as arbiter between the United
States and Great Britain in the matter of the American
northwestern boundary。 How could arbitration affect the true
position of the sovereign？ Take； for example； matters as they now
stand between Germany and the United States。 There is a vast mass
of petty questions which constantly trouble the relations between
the two countries。 These little questions embitter debates；
whether in your Reichstag on one hand； or in our Congress on the
other； and make the position of the Berlin and Washington
governments especially difficult。 The American papers attack me
because I yield too much to Germany； the German papers attack Von
Bulow because he yields too much to America； and these little
questions remain。 If Von Bulow and I were allowed to sit down and
settle them； we could do so at short notice； but behind him
stands the Reichstag； and behind our Secretary of State and
myself stands the American Congress。〃
I referred to such questions as the tonnage dues； the additional
tariff on bounty…promoted sugar； Samoa； the most…favored…nation
clause； in treaties between Germany and the United States； in
relation to the same clause in sundry treaties between the United
States and other powers； and said； 〃What a blessing it would be
if all these questions； of which both governments are tired； and
which make the more important questions constantly arising
between the two countries so difficult to settle； could be sent
at once to a tribunal and decided one way or the other！ In
themselves they amount to little。 It is not at all unlikely that
most of thempossibly all of themwould be decided in favor of
Germany； but the United States would acquiesce at once in the
decision by a tribunal such as is proposed。 And this is just what
would take place between Germany and other nations。 A mass of
vexatious questions would be settled by the tribunal； and the
sovereign and his government would thus be relieved from
parliamentary chicanery based； not upon knowledge； but upon party
tactics or personal grudges or inherited prejudices。〃
He seemed now more inclined to give weight to these
considerations； and will； I hope； urge his government to take a
better view than that which for some time past has seemed to be
indicated by the conduct of its representatives here。
In the afternoon I went to the five…o'clock tea of the Baroness
d'Estournelles； found a great crowd there； including the leading
delegates； and all anxious as to the conduct of Germany。 Meeting
the Baroness von Suttner who has been writing such earnest books
in behalf of peace； I urged her to write with all her might to
influence public prints in Austria； Italy； and Germany in behalf
of arbitration； telling her that we are just arriving at the
parting of the ways； and that everything possible must be done
now； or all may be lost。 To this she responded very heartily； and
I have no doubt will use her pen with much effect。
In the evening went to a great reception at the house of the
Austrian ambassador； M。 Okolicsanyi。 There was a crush。 Had a
long talk with Mr。 Stead； telling him D'Estournelles's story； and
urging him to use it in every way to show what a boon the failure
of arbitration would be to the anti…social forces in all parts of
Europe。
In the intervals during the day I busied myself in completing the
memorial to the conference regarding the immunity from seizure of
private property at sea。 If we cannot secure it now； we must at
least pave the way for its admission by a future international
conference。
CHAPTER XLVIII
AS PRESIDENT OF THE AMERICAN DELEGATION AT THE PEACE CONFERENCE
OF THE HAGUE： IV1899
June 16。 This morning Count Munster called and seemed much
excited by the fact that he had received a despatch from Berlin
in which the German Governmentwhich； of course； means the
Emperorhad strongly and finally declared against everything
like an arbitration tribunal。 He was clearly disconcerted by this
too literal acceptance of his own earlier views； and said that he
had sent to M。 de Staal insisting that the meeting of the
subcommittee on arbitration； which had been appointed for this
day （Friday）； should be adjourned on some pretext until next
Monday； 〃for；〃 said he； 〃if the session takes place to…day； Zorn
must make the declaration in behalf of Germany which these new
instructions order him to make； and that would be a misfortune。〃
I was very glad to see this evidence of change of heart in the
count； and immediately joined him in securing the adjournment he
desired。 The meeting of the subcommittee has therefore been
deferred； the reason assigned； as I understand； being that Baron
d'Estournelles is too much occupied to be present at the time
first named。 Later Count Munster told me that he had decided to
send Professor Zorn to Berlin at once in order to lay the whole
matter before the Foreign Office and induce the authorities to
modify the instructions。 I approved this course strongly；
whereupon he suggested that I should do something to the same
purp