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importation of plain goods by 121 per cent in quantity and 59。5 per
cent in value； while that of England and India combined has
decreased 13。75 per cent in quantity and 8 per cent in value。 Lord
Charles Beresford； from whose 〃Break…up of China〃 these figures are
taken； states that English yarn has receded and Indian yarn advanced
to the front。 In 1897； 140；000 piculs of Indian yarn were imported；
18；000 of Japanese； 4500 of Shanghai…manufactured； and 700 of
English。
Japan； who but yesterday emerged from the mediaeval rule of the
Shogunate and seized in one fell swoop the scientific knowledge and
culture of the Occident； is already today showing what wisdom she
has acquired in the production of surplus value； and is preparing
herself that she may tomorrow play the part to Asia that England did
to Europe one hundred years ago。 That the difference in the world's
affairs wrought by those one hundred years will prevent her
succeeding is manifest； but it is equally manifest that they cannot
prevent her playing a leading part in the industrial drama which has
commenced on the Eastern stage。 Her imports into the port of
Newchang in 1891 amounted to but 22；000 taels； but in 1897 they had
increased to 280；000 taels。 In manufactured goods； from matches；
watches； and clocks to the rolling stock of railways； she has
already given stiff shocks to her competitors in the Asiatic
markets； and this while she is virtually yet in the equipment stage
of production。 Erelong she； too； will be furnishing her share to
the growing mass of the world's capital。
As regards Great Britain； the giant trader who has so long
overshadowed Asiatic commerce； Lord Charles Beresford says： 〃But
competition is telling adversely； the energy of the British merchant
is being equalled by other nationals。 。 。 The competition of the
Chinese and the introduction of steam into the country are also
combining to produce changed conditions in China。〃 But far more
ominous is the plaintive note he sounds when he says： 〃New
industries must be opened up； and I would especially direct the
attention of the Chambers of Commerce （British） to 。 。 。 the fact
that the more the native competes with the British manufacturer in
certain classes of trade； the more machinery he will need； and the
orders for such machinery will come to this country if our machinery
manufacturers are enterprising enough。〃
The Orient is beginning to show what an important factor it will
become； under Western supervision； in the creation of surplus value。
Even before the barriers which restrain Western capital are removed；
the East will be in a fair way toward being exploited。 An analysis
of Lord Beresford's message to the Chambers of Commerce discloses；
first； that the East is beginning to manufacture for itself； and；
second； that there is a promise of keen competition in the West for
the privilege of selling the required machinery。 The inexorable
query arises： WHAT IS THE WEST TO DO WHEN IT HAS FURNISHED THIS
MACHINERY？ And when not only the East； but all the now undeveloped
countries； confront； with surplus products in their hands； the old
industrial nations； capitalistic production will have attained its
maximum development。
But before that time must intervene a period which bids one pause
for breath。 A new romance； like unto none in all the past； the
economic romance； will be born。 For the dazzling prize of world…
empire will the nations of the earth go up in harness。 Powers will
rise and fall； and mighty coalitions shape and dissolve in the swift
whirl of events。 Vassal nations and subject territories will be
bandied back and forth like so many articles of trade。 And with the
inevitable displacement of economic centres； it is fair to presume
that populations will shift to and fro； as they once did from the
South to the North of England on the rise of the factory towns； or
from the Old World to the New。 Colossal enterprises will be
projected and carried through； and combinations of capital and
federations of labor be effected on a cyclopean scale。
Concentration and organization will be perfected in ways hitherto
undreamed。 The nation which would keep its head above the tide must
accurately adjust supply to demand； and eliminate waste to the last
least particle。 Standards of living will most likely descend for
millions of people。 With the increase of capital； the competition
for safe investments； and the consequent fall of the interest rate；
the principal which today earns a comfortable income would not then
support a bare existence。 Saving toward old age would cease among
the working classes。 And as the merchant cities of Italy crashed
when trade slipped from their hands on the discovery of the new
route to the Indies by way of the Cape of Good Hope； so will there
come times of trembling for such nations as have failed to grasp the
prize of world…empire。 In that given direction they will have
attained their maximum development； before the whole world； in the
same direction； has attained its。 There will no longer be room for
them。 But if they can survive the shock of being flung out of the
world's industrial orbit； a change in direction may then be easily
effected。 That the decadent and barbarous peoples will be crushed
is a fair presumption； likewise that the stronger breeds will
survive； entering upon the transition stage to which all the world
must ultimately come。
This change of direction must be either toward industrial
oligarchies or socialism。 Either the functions of private
corporations will increase till they absorb the central government；
or the functions of government will increase till it absorbs the
corporations。 Much may be said on the chance of the oligarchy。
Should an old manufacturing nation lose its foreign trade； it is
safe to predict that a strong effort would be made to build a
socialistic government； but it does not follow that this effort
would be successful。 With the moneyed class controlling the State
and its revenues and all the means of subsistence； and guarding its
own interests with jealous care； it is not at all impossible that a
strong curb could be put upon the masses till the crisis were past。
It has been done before。 There is no reason why it should not be
done again。 At the close of the last century； such a movement was
crushed by its own folly and immaturity。 In 1871 the soldiers of
the economic rulers stamped out； root and branch； a whole generation
of militant socialists。
Once the crisis were past； the ruling class； still holding the curb
in order to make itself more secure； would proceed to readjust
things and to balance consumption with production。 Having a
monopoly of the safe investments； the great masses of unremunerative
capital would be directed； not to the production of more surplus
value； but to the making of permanent improvements； which would give
employment to the people； and make them content with the new order
of things。 Highways； parks； public buildings； monuments； could be
builded； nor would it be out of place to give better factories and
homes to the workers。 Such in itself would be socialistic； save
that it would be done by the oligarchs； a class apart。 With the
interest rate down to zero； and no field for the investment of
sporadic capital； savings among the people would utterly cease； and
old…age pensions be granted as a matter of course。 It is also a
logical necessity of such a system that； when the population began
to press against the means of subsistence； （expansion being
impossible）； the birth rate of the lower classes would be lessened。
Whether by their own initiative； or by the interference of the
rulers； it would have to be done； and it would be done。 In other
words； the oligarchy would mean the capitalization of labor and the
enslavement of the whole population。 But it would be a fairer；
juster form of slavery than any the world has yet seen。 The per
capita wage and consumption would be increased； and； with a
stringent control of the birth rate； there is no reason why such a
country should not be so ruled through many generations。
On the other hand； as the capitalistic exploitation of the planet
approaches its maximum； and countries are crowded out of the field
of foreign exchanges； there is a large likelihood that their change
in direction will be toward socialism。 Were the theory of
collective ownership and operation then to arise for the first time；
such a movement would stand small chance of success。 But such is
not the case。 The doctrine of socialism has flourished and grown
throughout the nineteenth century； its tenets have been preached
wherever the interests of labor and capital have clashed； and it has
received exemplification time and again by the State's assumption of
functions which had always belonged solely to the individual。
When capitalistic production has a