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the highest expression of the rationalism of his respective age；
attained to his ideal state： for the latter conception may be in a
measure regarded as representing the most spiritual principle which
they could discern in history。
Now； Plato created his on A PRIORI principles； Aristotle formed his
by an analysis of existing constitutions； Polybius found his
realised for him in the actual world of fact。 Aristotle criticised
the deductive speculations of Plato by means of inductive negative
instances； but Polybius will not take the 'Cloud City' of the
REPUBLIC into account at all。 He compares it to an athlete who has
never run on 'Constitution Hill；' to a statue so beautiful that it
is entirely removed from the ordinary conditions of humanity； and
consequently from the canons of criticism。
The Roman state had attained in his eyes； by means of the mutual
counteraction of three opposing forces； （7） that stable equilibrium
in politics which was the ideal of all the theoretical writers of
antiquity。 And in connection with this point it will be convenient
to notice here how much truth there is contained in the accusation
often brought against the ancients that they knew nothing of the
idea of Progress； for the meaning of many of their speculations
will be hidden from us if we do not try and comprehend first what
their aim was； and secondly why it was so。
Now； like all wide generalities； this statement is at least
inaccurate。 The prayer of Plato's ideal City … ＇Greek text which
cannot be reproduced＇； might be written as a text over the door of
the last Temple to Humanity raised by the disciples of Fourier and
Saint…Simon； but it is certainly true that their ideal principle
was order and permanence； not indefinite progress。 For； setting
aside the artistic prejudices which would have led the Greeks to
reject this idea of unlimited improvement； we may note that the
modern conception of progress rests partly on the new enthusiasm
and worship of humanity； partly on the splendid hopes of material
improvements in civilisation which applied science has held out to
us； two influences from which ancient Greek thought seems to have
been strangely free。 For the Greeks marred the perfect humanism of
the great men whom they worshipped； by imputing to them divinity
and its supernatural powers； while their science was eminently
speculative and often almost mystic in its character； aiming at
culture and not utility； at higher spirituality and more intense
reverence for law； rather than at the increased facilities of
locomotion and the cheap production of common things about which
our modern scientific school ceases not to boast。 And lastly； and
perhaps chiefly； we must remember that the 'plague spot of all
Greek states；' as one of their own writers has called it； was the
terrible insecurity to life and property which resulted from the
factions and revolutions which ceased not to trouble Greece at all
times； raising a spirit of fanaticism such as religion raised in
the middle ages of Europe。
These considerations； then； will enable us to understand first how
it was that； radical and unscrupulous reformers as the Greek
political theorists were； yet； their end once attained； no modern
conservatives raised such outcry against the slightest innovation。
Even acknowledged improvements in such things as the games of
children or the modes of music were regarded by them with feelings
of extreme apprehension as the herald of the DRAPEAU ROUGE of
reform。 And secondly； it will show us how it was that Polybius
found his ideal in the commonwealth of Rome； and Aristotle； like
Mr。 Bright； in the middle classes。 Polybius； however； is not
content merely with pointing out his ideal state； but enters at
considerable length into the question of those general laws whose
consideration forms the chief essential of the philosophy of
history。
He starts by accepting the general principle that all things are
fated to decay （which I noticed in the case of Plato）； and that 'as
iron produces rust and as wood breeds the animals that destroy it；
so every state has in it the seeds of its own corruption。' He is
not； however； content to rest there； but proceeds to deal with the
more immediate causes of revolutions； which he says are twofold in
nature； either external or internal。 Now； the former； depending as
they do on the synchronous conjunction of other events outside the
sphere of scientific estimation； are from their very character
incalculable； but the latter； though assuming many forms； always
result from the over…great preponderance of any single element to
the detriment of the others； the rational law lying at the base of
all varieties of political changes being that stability can result
only from the statical equilibrium produced by the counteraction of
opposing parts； since the more simple a constitution is the more it
is insecure。 Plato had pointed out before how the extreme liberty
of a democracy always resulted in despotism； but Polybius analyses
the law and shows the scientific principles on which it rests。
The doctrine of the instability of pure constitutions forms an
important era in the philosophy of history。 Its special
applicability to the politics of our own day has been illustrated
in the rise of the great Napoleon； when the French state had lost
those divisions of caste and prejudice； of landed aristocracy and
moneyed interest； institutions in which the vulgar see only
barriers to Liberty but which are indeed the only possible defences
against the coming of that periodic Sirius of politics； the ＇Greek
text which cannot be reproduced＇。
There is a principle which Tocqueville never wearies of explaining；
and which has been subsumed by Mr。 Herbert Spencer under that
general law common to all organic bodies which we call the
Instability of the Homogeneous。 The various manifestations of this
law； as shown in the normal； regular revolutions and evolutions of
the different forms of government； （8） are expounded with great
clearness by Polybius； who claimed for his theory； in the
Thucydidean spirit； that it is a ＇Greek text which cannot be
reproduced＇； not a mere ＇Greek text which cannot be reproduced＇；
and that a knowledge of it will enable the impartial observer （9）
to discover at any time what period of its constitutional evolution
any particular state has already reached and into what form it will
be next differentiated； though possibly the exact time of the
changes may be more or less uncertain。 （10）
Now in this necessarily incomplete account of the laws of political
revolutions as expounded by Polybius enough perhaps has been said
to show what is his true position in the rational development of
the 'Idea' which I have called the Philosophy of History； because
it is the unifying of history。 Seen darkly as it is through the
glass of religion in the pages of Herodotus； more metaphysical than
scientific with Thucydides； Plato strove to seize it by the eagle…
flight of speculation； to reach it with the eager grasp of a soul
impatient of those slower and surer inductive methods which
Aristotle； in his trenchant criticism of his greater master； showed
were more brilliant than any vague theory； if the test of
brilliancy is truth。
What then is the position of Polybius？ Does any new method remain
for him？ Polybius was one of those many men who are born too late
to be original。 To Thucydides belongs the honour of being the
first in the history of Greek thought to discern the supreme calm
of law and order underlying the fitful storms of life； and Plato
and Aristotle each represents a great new principle。 To Polybius
belongs the office … how noble an office he made it his writings
show … of making more explicit the ideas which were implicit in his
predecessors； of showing that they were of wider applicability and
perhaps of deeper meaning than they had seemed before； of examining
with more minuteness the laws which they had discovered； and
finally of pointing out more clearly than any one had done the
range of science and the means it offered for analysing the present
and predicting what was to come。 His office thus was to gather up
what they had left； to give their principles new life by a wider
application。
Polybius ends this great diapason of Greek thought。 When the
Philosophy of history appears next； as in Plutarch's tract on 'Why
God's anger is delayed；' the pendulum of thought had swung back to
where it began。 His theory was introduced to the Romans under the
cultured style of Cicero； and was welcomed by them as the
philosophical panegyric of their state。 The last notice of it in
Latin literature is in the pages of Tacitus； who alludes to the
stable polity formed out of these elements as a constitution easier
to commend than to produce and in no case lasting。 Yet Polybius
had seen the future with no uncertain