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股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第10章

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ing; 1996)。 For the mathematically minded; or for those who would like to set this。up on a PC; the formula for the different lines。is。detailed in Figure 3。2。 For those like me with a pathological fear of algebra; whose eyes。glaze as。soon as。they see a Greek。letter; we shall work。through step…by…step in plain English how these charts。are set up and how they work。 (Also; remember that the Bloomberg terminal will draw all the lines。for you。) 
What follows。are the five steps。necessary to set up these charts。 
1。 
Plot daily candlesticks。of your chosen instrument。 Because the Tokyo stock exchange closes for lunch; some traders。plot morning and afternoon sessions。separately。 Although traditional theory says。only daily candles can be used; many bend the rules。and use hourly and weekly。candles。 One reason to try and follow the conventions is。that if you don't you may be the only trader whose averages。have crossed (and you will be wondering why all the others。have not leapt into action)。 In fact; if you are too clever and tinker excessively; you may be very precise; but you will miss。the crowd psychology。 

2。 
Look。at the shapes。of the candles。first to see if there are any reversal formations。 These are easier to spot before you start drawing in all the other lines。 

3。 
Next; add nine…day and twenty…six…day averages。 These averages。are based on mean price (high minus。low divided by two); not closing price。 



Through extrusive manual back…testing; Ichimoku Sanjin decided that these two time frames worked best。 It may have something to do with the fact that in his day everyone worked a five…and…a…half…day week。and each month contained twenty…six working days。 Many have suggested changing the number of days。in the averages; perhaps。to ten and twenty。 I would; if most other people had; but as。they haven't; I won’t。 Again; you are trying to tune in to the mind…set of other investors。 There is。no point being ahead of my time; I want to know when the thundering herd will react。 
The averages。are employed as。in conventional Western methods。 The shorter one (known as。die Conversion Line) whips。around the longer one (called the Base Line)。 When the nine…day average drops。below the Base Line; it is。time to convert from a long position to a short one。 On the way up; the opposite action is。called for so the trader always。has。an open position in the market。 (Obviously this。strategy only applies。to situations。in which one can go short。) The crucial insight about all moving averages。is that they work。well in trending markets。but are hopeless。for sideways。moves。 The tricky bit is。deciding whether and when the market has。switched from one mode to another; and for how long might it last。 Sometimes。the individual candles。can help with this—say a doji (a candle in which the opening price and the closing price were the same; forming a crossbar figure) appears。at the edge of a current horizontal move; this suggests。that the range will hold even if the averages。have crossed。 More often than not I would wait for confirmation with a weekly or monthly close outside the previousngestion zone to conclude that there is。indeed a new trend。 

4。 
After plotting the candles; move on to the clouds。 Clouds。are defined by an upper edge and a lower one; both called Span; which; as。in English; means。length of time。 Leading Span 1 also known as。Senkou Span A; is。the sum of today's。values。of the moving averages。divided by two; plotted twenty…six days。ahead of the last plete candle。 Leading Span 2; or Senkou Span B; is。the highest price of the last fifty…two days; minus。the lowest price of that period; divided by two and again plotted twenty…six days。ahead of the last plete days。trading。 The space between these two is。shaded; or cross…hatched as。in the figures。in this。chapter; but may be rendered in any color or bination of colors。your heart desires。 Even though the upper edge and the lower edge have similar names; they are constructed very differently。 Like the Conversion Line and the Base Line。 Leading Span 1 and Leading Span 2 work。together。 Span 1 is。faster; providing the arias; whereas。the slower Span 2 provides。die underlying beat。 When these two march in the same direction; the market is。clearly trending: bullish when Span 1 is。above Span 2 or bearish when Span 2 is。above Span 1。 

5。 
The final line to plot is。the Lagging Span; called Chikou Span in Japanese。 In the figures。in this。chapter; the lagging Span is。the thickest; darkest line。 It is。last nights。closing price; not the current price; plotted twenty…six days。ago。 


Lagging Span is a line chart that has been displaced back in time; hence the name。 Some puters。have trouble with this。one and plot the current price twenty…five days ago。 If this。is。the case; the line will bob up and down during the day as。the current price changes。 This。is irritating; but not an enormous problem。 However; the reason for using the closing price is。sound。 As I pointed out earlier; today’s。price action can take all sorts。of shapes during the day。 The goal is。to work。with what it eventually ended up looking like。 Learn to be patient。 

These lines。identify support; resistance; and the trend。 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is。a system designed for trending markets。and is。not useful for anything that is。crawling across。the page。 Because it relies。on daily candlestick charts; day traders。and very。active market…makers。won't find it too valuable。 On the other end of the spectrum; it is。a little too short term for pension funds。looking to invest for very long time horizons。 I have found that this。last problem can be overe by using weekly candles; and that these often work。exceeding well。 Monthly charts。are not much good because Leading Span B uses。data of up to fifty…two prior time periods。 Fifty…two months。is。more than four years; meaning that the slower span hardly changes。(and therefore the cloud does。not move much) and may be a million miles。from current prices。 My Japanese colleagues。bend the rules。of this。system by working with hourly and five…minute charts。 They have been trying it with weekly。ones。for a long time。 Feel free to fiddle and experiment。 
To recap quickly; the six most useful elements are: 
。 
the candles themselves; individually and in groups and patterns。

。 
two moving averages; nine…day (Conversion Line) and twenty…six…day (Base Line) simple ones。

。 
two Leading Spans; which make up the cloud itself 
。 one Lagging Span 





Working With the Elements 
The candles; as。mentioned; are used in exactly the same way as。bar charts。 First look。for clusters。of support and resistance; patterns; congestion /ones; and trendlines。 Then look for reversal candles; which usually appear either singly (easy to spot because they are often the biggest) or in clusters。of twos。and threes。 Gaps。in the price action; especially if associated with a reversal candle; are also important; rather like Western 〃island reversals。〃 
Use the moving averages。in the usual way。 Take a long position when the nine…day one is。higher than the longer average; switch to a short position when the nine…day drops below the twenty…six…day average。 The Base Line is。a sort of drumbeat; keeping the pace; while the Conversion Line forces。you to act; shifting between long and short positions。 This is。not necessarily noise; but worth keeping in mind when deciding whether the Conversion Line's。moves。are significant。 This。method of trading keeps。you in the market 100 percent of the time; not necessarily a good idea (vast losses。pile up in sideways。markets) and perhaps not even an achievable one — for example; if you cannot borrow shares。that you have sold short。 The averages。themselves。are used as。support and resistance levels。for today's。price action。 In a bull trend the averages。move northeast more slowly than the candles。 If there was。a small downward correction; the nine…day average would be the first support level; the twenty…six…day。average the next。 The value of the instrument might drop below the nine…day one and hold somewhere between there and the lower average。 At that point; scrutinize the candles。themselves。for signs。of a reversal。 At this stage the averages。should not cross。 If they do; at least cut the position。 And never forget: moving averages。work。well only in trending markets。 
The edges。of the cloud also act as。support and resistance; both for trending and sideways。markets。 In an ideal bull market; leading Span 1 will be below the nine…day and twenty…six…day averages。and above the Leading Span 2。 These support you all the way。up and everything is。plain sailing。 The opposite happens。in a perfect bear market: all the lines。feel top…heavy and grind the market down。 This。is。a series。of four lines。which should limit any collective move。 Picture them as。two pairs。 In the first pair; the longer moving average is。more important than the short one。 In the second pair; Span 2 is。of critical importance; whereas。Span 1 may or may not stem the move。 I think。of this。as。an advance force versus。rearguard action。 If prices。move through leading Span 2; then any position should be cut and probably reversed。 If this。one goes; watch out! As。always; at support and resistance levels。watch for reversal…type candles。which will hint that the lev
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