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lways； at support and resistance levels。watch for reversal…type candles。which will hint that the level will hold。 These often break。through Span 2 intraday and then close back。inside the cloud； forming a good reversal pattern。
The most interesting thing about the clouds is。that they are plotted twenty…six days。ahead of today's。prices。 They therefore indicate where support and resistance levels。will lie over the ing month。 The thicker the cloud； the more likely it will contain price action。 If it is。thin； and if the lines。cross。from bull to bear； then the odds。increase that the trend will change。 So looking forward； the cloud gives you some idea whether to consider reversing tactics。 In this。situation； price action will be nonexistent。 If coupled with a reversal candle at this。point； whether it confirms。that the trend will hold or hints。that it will change； extra attention to detail and willingness。to go with the move is。warranted。 The distance between the current price and the cloud is not considered important。 It does not indicate whether the trend is overstretched； as。the relative strength index （RSI） or other oscillators。that try and measure market excesses。would do。 However； if the price had say shot up suddenly and far faster than usual； meaning the clouds。were an awful。long way down； and an evening star or a hanging man candle formed； then it may be worth taking profits。as。the corrective decline might not stop until a very long way down。
I tend to give infinitely more weight to the clouds than I give the averages。 Am I correct in doing so？ To be honest I still use conventional Western techniques—classic。Dow Theory。is。how I would describe my methods。 Therefore； patterns。are the most important； followed by trendlines。and retracements； averages； and a couple of oscillators。 Volume and open interest can also contribute if available。 As。to averages； I have done extensive back…testing （with a puter） and know that no single set of averages。worksnsistently well over time。 The nine…day and twenty…six…day moving averages。of Ichimoku are not superior to the traditional Western ten…day and twenty…day bination。
Over the last ten years。I have added Ichimoku clouds。because they have pletely。new elements—including their position today and their position at the end of a month。 Their thickness。or lack。thereof indicates。whether prices。will break。through and when a topping or bottoming formation may occur。 Let's。say； for example； a congestion pattern has。been apparent for some time。 Is。it a double top？ If the cloud thins； it is。indeed quite possible that the market is。reaching an interim high。 As。with conventional methods； only a decisive break below the lower edge of the pattern and a break。below the lower edge of the cloud can confirm this。 If； on the other hand； the cloud gets thicker； then chances。are that price action isnsolidating in a 〃rectangle〃 and not a major top。
The Lagging Span； or Chikou Span； which is。last nights。closing price plotted twenty…six。days。ago； is。a bit of a dark。horse。 It is。also difficult to review the chart and decide whether it worked。 This。line is。yet another in the series。that indicates where today's。support and resistance levels。lie。
If this thick。black。line is。above the candles。of twenty…six days。ago； in a bull market； then the real body of the candles should ensure that today’s。closing price will be above the twenty…six…day…old low point。 It is a bit tricky and conceptually very different from Western analysis。 Playing with time lines； shifting things。forward and back。again； is。certainly not the usual Western approach。 This。is。precisely why the method adds。something to the body of knowledge。 At the very least it is。a lot more than a repetition of traditional methods or a simple tweaking of conventional technical analysis。 Interpreting this line is。a bit like surfing a wave — anticipating both the arrival of a good one and when it might collapse； allowing for a graceful exit rather than crash and bang。
On the way。down； the indicators。are exactly the opposite of what they were on the way。up。 In a bear market； if the Lagging Span is。below the candles。of twenty…six days。ago （ideally a cluster of tightly grouped ones）； the real bodies。will act as。resistance。 Often the lagging Span weaves。itself slowly through a pattern of candles； a rectangle for example。 Then； when it breaks。out of the congestion zone； it soars。or plummets。dramatically。 In other words； once the Lagging Span has。been set free； today's。market gathers。momentum and manages。a big move。 The clouds。of twenty…six days。ago also act as。support and resistance for this。black。line； which often grinds。prices。lower if it is。trapped below a fat cloud。 When the cloud thins； the chances。of the Lagging Span's。breaking out increase significantly。 I realize this。is。a difficult concept to grasp。 The twenty…six…day。lag time is particularly mysterious。 Why should what happened then affect here and now？ Nonetheless； experience hasnvinced me that all these lines。do work。well together； reinforcing trends。and underlining where the key levels。lie。 It pays。to bide your time； respect the lines。and patterns； and rid yourself of too many preconceptions。
I look。at the Lagging Span （Chikou Span） very closely because it is。not available in a conventional tool kit。 （This。one is。a lot easier to spot when working in color。） Some feel that using a displaced price （twenty…six days。ago） to understand today's。market is。far…fetched。 It is。a little like being a time traveler： now； tomorrow； yesterday； back…and…forward juggling with a total fifty…two…day period。 It's。a bit like watching a seesaw； wondering which way it will tip next。 I find this。a truly fascinating idea that probably warrants。further investigation； Ichimoku Kinko Hyo's。key concept is。that price and time are inextricably linked。 Just as。with today's。candles； the elements。that provide support and resistance act in the same way with this。Lagging Span。 So； nine…day and twenty…six…day averages； then the two edges。of the cloud； and finally the candle of twenty…six days。ago also provide support for Chikou Span （not all day long； but for the closing price of today； the only data plotted）。 This。is。especially。strong support if the elements。cluster together。 Interestingly； if the market was。moving into a congestion zone twenty…six days。ago； then probably today's； tomorrow's； and the next week's。worth of price action will be range…bound； halting； and difficult。 This。is。because the old candles。（especially their real bodies） limit current price action as。the Lagging Span snakes。its。way through them。 I don't actually know how or why this。works。 This。is。what the theory says。and； having used the method extensively； I can say。that it really。does。work。quite often。 Additionally； this。is。a theory that Mr。 Hosoda back…tested extensively before sharing it with the world。
Could this。be a self…fulfilling theory？ Do so many people use this。method that they。actually create it by their actions？ The evidence is。against this。 First； paratively。speaking； only a few of the world's。technical analysts。use Ichimoku Kinko Hyo。 However； in Japan； the situation is。reversed。 So many Japanese dealersnstantly refer to screens with this。type of chart that I would be negligent if I were to ignore the clouds。in these sectors。and markets。
Since January 2004； as。demonstrated in Figure 3。6； the U。S。 dollar/pound currency。pair has。been moving sideways。in a very broad band between 1。7000 and 1。9200 （most of the time）。 From April 2006 to date it has。been trending higher； with a lengthy consolidation period from mid…May to late July。
Here's。how the different Ichimoku Kinko tools。work。in this。chart。
Moving average crossovers。have captured the significant moves。throughout but are mixed at the moment。 The Base Line is。often flat。
The cloud； which was。incredibly thin until early April； nevertheless。manages。to keep the cable （a nickname for the exchange rate between the U。S。 dollar and British pound） below it。 Note the hammer candle on April 3。 A clear break。and daily close above the top of the cloud on April 17 kicks。off a strong rally。with the nine…day average limiting the lows。of the candles on the way。up。
The moving averages。cross。over on June 7； and prices。slide suddenly to their lowest levels。in a month。 The top of the cloud supports。the candles。in mid…June； but they then drop to the lower edge of what is。by then a fat cloud with an almost horizontal Leading Span 2。 For the next month （until July 26） the cable snakes its。way sideways。limited both on the upside and on the downside by the Leading Spans。 Midway through this。period the averages。turn bullish； and both of these then limit daily lows until September 5； by which time the Leading Spans。cross。
Septembers。dip to 1。8600 was。again stopped by the bottom of the cloud； and the last prices。on the chart are just above the top of it。 The cloud gets。fatter； again with a horizontal lower edge； and this may allow the pound to creep higher even if the moving averagesntinue to flip around each other。
The lagging Span； not surprisingly； was。not very helpful when prices。were moving broadly sideways。 Note however that on June 12 the cloud pushed this。black。line decidedly。higher； acting as。support for prices