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ever that on June 12 the cloud pushed this。black。line decidedly。higher； acting as。support for prices。on July 17。 Also look。at August 7； where the twenty…six…day average pushes。the Lagging Span up again。 At the time of writing （mid…September 2006）； the Lagging Span is。under the candles。of twenty…six days ago； suggesting we may。snake slowly sideways under these for another two weeks。
The outlook； according to this。chart： Generally we expect the cable to move very slowly。higher over the next month； possibly more quickly if the averages。turn clearly bullish。
Support levels：
1。8770 （top of the cloud but note this。moves。higher until mid…October）
1。8660 （twenty…six…day。average twenty…six days。ago for the Lagging Span）
1。8600 （the bottom of the cloud）
Figure 3。7 charts。the S&P 500。 Since March 2003； the trend has。been decidedly。bullish； with lengthy periods。of consolidation along the way。 A moving average crossover trading strategy would have kept you invested most of the time； except for a fairly long spell from June to October 2004。 The averages。also switched briefly to a short position between April and July 2005 and in June 2006。
The clouds。have worked admirably； the index clinging to the top edge of these on most pullbacks。 Since February 2005 the cloud has。been a lot thinner than in previous。years； but even so has。provided support。 Note that the Leading Spans。have never crossed over。
The Lagging Span has。held above the twenty…six…week moving average throughout； bouncing strongly from it in February 2004； April 2005； and January 2006。
Looking ahead to September 2006； the nine…week。average crossed over the twenty…six…week。one； so perhaps。the S&F。500 will start to climb higher again； helped along by the top of the cloud which is。also rising slightly。 However； prices。might initially drop to or into the cloud； meaning that the averages。will turn down again。 The reality is。that these two might whip around each other for quite some time； which suggests。that the moving average crossover system should go on the back。burner for now。 The Lagging Span is。just above the top of the candles。themselves； and so may provide support for current prices。 To conclude； there will be very gently rising prices； but watch out in January 2007 as。the cloud bees thin。
pared to most so…called trending systems； Ichimoku Kinko Hyo can work。very well in a congestion zone （with minor adaptations）。 As。Figure 3。8 shows； the /Yen has。been in a bull market。 In September 2006； it started moving sideways。 The upper edge of the cloud is。the first support （after the nine…day and twenty…six…day averages）； and the lower edge of the cloud is。the key support。 Leading Span 1 （the upper edge of the cloud） will hold dips most； but not all； of the time。 Prices。will dip into the shaded area and then rally ahead of Leading Span 2。 The market will often then creep erratically within the cloud； moving slowly。between its。two edges。 I included this。fairly recent chart here so you can judge the usefulness。of these techniques。for yourself。 Had I included only historical charts； I would have given the impression that the system always。works； I hope you will discover how well the system works。as。events。unfold。
Taking a larger perspective on the markets； I've found that while it may be useful to have some sort of road map and some idea of how far along you have e； it's。smart to be flexible。 Do not get obsessed with terrorist threats； economic。slowdown； and house…price bubbles。 Look。also at information and chart patterns。that contradict your view； not just the ones。that support it。 Also try to find as。many parts。of the puzzle that fit together as you can； but think。more carefully about the ones。that do not。 Look。at similar and related instruments。to see if the movesnfirm each other。 So if the cable looks。as though it is going up； then /Yen should be on its。way down。 If copper is。at a record high； then other base metals。should be on the expensive side。 Do not try to force a piece of the puzzle in； but try to look。at it from a different perspective。 Being a bit of a contrarian myself； I enjoy questioning conventional wisdom and often trade against prevailing views。 This。often works。well； as。too much has been priced into the market way ahead of the expected date。
I will conclude with some advice。
Charts。are all about reading psychology and smelling raw emotion。 Do not forget this。
Do not think。that you can move into or out of any financial instrument with…out causing ripples。（or tidal waves。at times）。 Everything you think； do； and feel makes。the market。 Alter all； any market is。the sum total of our actions； hopes； and fears。
Some markets； like foreign exchange； are huge。 Changing money for your holiday will have practically zero effect。 But consider that there are hundreds of thousands of these small transactions。going on every day and the cumulative amounts。do matter。 In tiny。markets—tightly owned shares。in a small pany； for example—the impact is。far greater and more immediate。 Say private equity pany X has。decided to amass。a significant stake in Y at fifty pence—the chart will have a horizontal at 50 because the bid is。there。 And if the bid is。upped to sixty pence； the lows。will immediately be limited at this。point。
Look。at charts； imagine what people are thinking。 Remember： They are voting with their pockets。
The name technical analysis。sounds。very scientific。and rational。 It isn't。 Nor are the markets。we endeavor to follow。 Like classic。cars。and golf club memberships； there is。a lot more to the value at which these change hands。than purely financial considerations。
The more confident you grow with any new technique； the more likely you are to tinker with it。 Confidence begets。creativity。 Think of Renaissance painters。and Greek philosophers。 When working within very tight constraints； the truly gifted can and will e up with something stunning and original。 My。Japanese colleagues。astonishingly。use hourly。candles； particularly with things。like /Yen and the Nikkei 225。 Try these and see what you think。 I have had fifty…fifty results。with this。so far； not nearly close to my usual standards。 Often it can be worth sticking with the crowd。
When dealing with financial markets； self…knowledge and a sense of perspective are the most difficult things。to master； as。is。knowing when to pounce and when to stand back and be patient。 With technical analysis； you'll e to distinguish between unnecessary。〃noise〃 and indications the market is。about to move。
As。you can see； this。chapter is。a mix of new （to us Westerners） technical analysis。and down…home advice。 Which is。the most important？ The basics； of course。 But I have added Ichimoku Kinko Hyo to my armory； and I hope you will too。
CHAPTER。4
Reading Candlestick Charts
YOSUKh SHIMIZU
T
here are many different kinds。of stock。charts。in use； but candlesticks。are probably the most mon form in Japan。 The name candlestickses from the practice of representing price movements。with white and black。sticks。that look like candles； particularly。the form with a white box on the bottom and a thin line extending upward。
This style of charting isnsidered to have its。roots in the Edo…period rice markets。of Dojima （near modern…day Osaka）。 Historians。estimate that they took。their present form in the latter half of the Meiji period （late 1800s）。 Originally； they were just sticks。drawn in red or black。
What Are Candlesticks？
Let’s。start by looking at how candlesticks。are drawn。 Figure 4。1 is。a list of fictitious intraday stock。price movements。
If prices。move in order from 1 to 30； they produce a line graph like the one marked No。 1 in Figure 4。2； which we can express。as。a candlestick； as。shown by No。 2。
If the movement were like the chart in Figure 4。3； the candlestick would be colored black。 A black。candlestick。indicates。that the opening price was。higher than the closing price。 In other words； prices。spent the day more or less。sliding downward。 This。is。called a black candlestick。 The same charting technique can be applied to yearly price movements as。well。
The difference between a white candlestick。and a black。candlestick。is。whether the opening price （the first price of the session） was。higher than the closing price （the last price of the session）。 As Figure 4。4 shows； if the closing price is。lower than the opening price； a black。candlestick is。used； if it is。higher； a white candlestick。 The lines。extending out from the black。or white bodies。are called shadows。and represent the price extremes。（highest and lowest prices） during the day。
In a daily chart； a single black。or white candle expresses。price movements。for a single day； in a weekly chart； a single candle expresses。price movements for an entire week； in a monthly chart； for an entire month。 Chart* can be drawn in almost any increment。 Some traders。even use one…minute and live…minute charts。
Regardless。of the time frame； the form of the candlestick。and itsbination with other candlesticks。can be used to identify the market's。direction and its。relative strength or weakness。 That is。the main purpose of candlestick。charts。
How to Read Candlesticks
Candlesticks。express。stock。price movements。over a set period of time （ordinarily either one day or o