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When they make these offerings； investment bankers display their humorous side： They dispense ine and balance sheet projections extending five or more years into the future for panies they barely had heard of a few months earlier。 If you are shown such schedules； I suggest that you join in the fun： Ask the investment banker for the one…year budgets that his own firm prepared as the last few years began and then pare these with what actually happened。
当他们推出这样的新案子时，投资银行展现他们幽默的一面，他们将损益表与资产负债表的预估展延为五年或甚至更长的一段期间，虽然在几个月之前，他们可能连这家公司的名字都没听过，我想如果你那天碰到这种预估表，我建议你可以参与这样的游戏：跟这位投资银行家要一份他们自己公司的过去几年的年度预算，然后跟他们实际的结果必较一下，你就知道是什么回事了。
Some time ago Ken Galbraith； in his witty and insightful The Great Crash； coined a new economic term： 〃the bezzle；〃 defined as the current amount of undiscovered embezzlement。 This financial creature has a magical quality： The embezzlers are richer by the amount of the bezzle； while the embezzlees do not yet feel poorer。
许久以前Ken Galbraith在他的名著「大恐慌」中，发明了一个新的经济名词…Bezzle，用来代表现有未被发现的贪污舞弊，这种财经现象有一个很奇特的特质，那就是贪污舞弊者因为贪污舞弊而发大财，但问题是受害者却一点也没有被剥夺变穷的感觉。
Professor Galbraith astutely pointed out that this sum should be added to the National Wealth so that we might know the Psychic National Wealth。 Logically； a society that wanted to feel enormously prosperous would both encourage its citizens to embezzle and try not to detect the crime。 By this means； 〃wealth〃 would balloon though not an erg of productive work had been done。
Galbraith教授真知卓见地点出大家应该把这个数字统计一下，加进国民财富当中，从而我们可以知道心理上的国民财富为多少，理论上一个社会若想要觉得自己经济繁荣发展就应该多多鼓励人民去贪污舞弊，并试着不要去揭发它，透过这种方式，一个国家的财富可以大幅地增长，虽然实际上它什么有生产力的事都没做。
The satirical nonsense of the bezzle is dwarfed by the real…world nonsense of the zero…coupon bond。 With zeros； one party to a contract can experience 〃ine〃 without his opposite experiencing the pain of expenditure。 In our illustration； a pany capable of earning only 100 million dollars annually … and therefore capable of paying only that much in interest … magically creates 〃earnings〃 for bondholders of 150 million。 As long as major investors willingly don their Peter Pan wings and repeatedly say 〃I believe；〃 there is no limit to how much 〃ine〃 can be created by the zero…coupon bond。
但是这种不合理的贪污舞弊，在现实社会中却被零息债券给比了下去，利用这些”零”一家公司可以大大方方靠着这纸签约，利用借款享受所带来的收入，但另外一方面却不知承担支付支出的痛苦，以我们先前提到的例子，一家每年可以赚1亿美元的公司，利用这种方法，在债券投资人的面前，却可以把膨胀到1亿5；000万美元，只要投资人愿意充当彼得潘，不断地说「我相信你」，只要你愿意零息债券所创造的收入是没有上限的。
Wall Street weled this invention with the enthusiasm less…enlightened folk might reserve for the wheel or the plow。 Here； finally； was an instrument that would let the Street make deals at prices no longer limited by actual earning power。 The result； obviously； would be more transactions： Silly prices will always attract sellers。 And； as Jesse Unruh might have put it； transactions are the mother's milk of finance。
华尔街以热情拥抱这项新的发明，后知后觉的人可能就准备等着卷铺盖走路，终于在这里大家找到一个可以不必理会公司实际获利能力的融资方法，结果很明显，当然就会有更多的生意上门，离谱的价格一定有卖家愿意出，就像Jesse Unruh可能会说的一句话，交易就像是金融世界的母奶。
The zero…coupon or PIK bond possesses one additional attraction for the promoter and investment banker； which is that the time elapsing between folly and failure can be stretched out。 This is no small benefit。 If the period before all costs must be faced is long； promoters can create a string of foolish deals … and take in lots of fees … before any chickens e home to roost from their earlier ventures。
此外零息与PIK债券还有一项特点使得支持者与银行家更愿意推行，就是东窗事发的时间可以再延长，这点可是相当的重要，如果交易所衍生的后果要很长一段时间才会浮现，那么支持者就可以在这段期间做更多的交易，从中赚取更多的手续费，直到事件东窗事发之前。
But in the end； alchemy； whether it is metallurgical or financial； fails。 A base business can not be transformed into a golden business by tricks of accounting or capital structure。 The man claiming to be a financial alchemist may bee rich。 But gullible investors rather than business achievements will usually be the source of his wealth。
不过到最后，炼金术，不管是冶金的或是财务上的，终究是会落空，一个烂公司不可能只靠着会计或财务技巧而摇身一变成为好公司，那个宣称会炼金术的财务专业人士或许会发大财，但他靠的却是容易上当的投资人而不是企业经营。
Whatever their weaknesses； we should add； many zero…coupon and PIK bonds will not default。 We have in fact owned some and may buy more if their market bees sufficiently distressed。 （We've not； however； even considered buying a new issue from a weak credit。） No financial instrument is evil per se； it's just that some variations have far more potential for mischief than others。
不过这些债券有多少缺点，但我们却必须承认许多零息与PIK债券应该不会还不出钱来，事实上我们自己也投资了一些，而且若是债券市场情况再变差一点，我们可能还会买的更多，（当然我们从来就不会考虑去买那些新发行债信又差的垃圾债券），就本质而言，没有一项财务工具是不对的，只是有一些含有相当高程度的可能伤害在里面。
The blue ribbon for mischief…making should go to the zero…coupon issuer unable to make its interest payments on a current basis。 Our advice： Whenever an investment banker starts talking about EBDIT … or whenever someone creates a capital structure that does not allow all interest； both payable and accrued； to be fortably met out of current cash flow net of ample capital expenditures … zip up your wallet。 Turn the tables by suggesting that the promoter and his high…priced entourage accept zero…coupon fees； deferring their take until the zero…coupon bonds have been paid in full。 See then how much enthusiasm for the deal endures。
所有的罪过应该归咎于债券发行者没有办法在现在就立即支付利息，我们的建议是当任何投资银行家在开始提到EBDIT之前，或是任何人在对你提议一项可以不必支付任何利息的金融工具时，为了你自己的现金流量着想，赶快把你的荷包看紧，换个角度建议这些推销者是否也能接受等这些零息债券真正偿还本金之后，再缴交手续费，看看这些人的热情还能支撑多久。
Our ments about investment bankers may seem harsh。 But Charlie and I … in our hopelessly old…fashioned way … believe that they should perform a gatekeeping role； guarding investors against the promoter's propensity to indulge in excess。 Promoters； after all； have throughout time exercised the same judgment and restraint in accepting money that alcoholics have exercised in accepting liquor。 At a minimum； therefore； the banker's conduct should rise to that of a responsible bartender who； when necessary； refuses the profit from the next drink to avoid sending a drunk out on the highway。 In recent years； unfortunately； many leading investment firms have found bartender morality to be an intolerably restrictive standard。 Lately； those who have traveled the high road in Wall Street have not encountered heavy traffic。
我们对于这些投资银行家的批判或许是激烈了一点，但查理跟我以我们这种无可救药的保守作风，相信他们确实应该要做好把关的工作，保护投资人免于这些推销者过度的引诱，因为推销者对于佣金的饥渴就像是酗酒者对于酒精的沉溺一样，最低限度，投资银行家也要肩负起吧台调酒师的角色，必要的时候，就算少赚一杯酒钱，也要劝客户少喝一点，不幸的是最近几年来，许多大型的投资银行都认为这样的基本道德规范是一项很严重的限制，因为其它很多大胆的业者，可以更自由的大行其道。
One distressing footnote： The cost of the zero…coupon folly will not be borne solely by the direct participants。 Certain savings and loan associations were heavy buyers of such bonds； using cash that came from FSLIC…insured deposits。 Straining to show splendid earnings； these buyers recorded … but did not receive … ultra…high interest ine on these issues。 Many of these associations are now in major trouble。 Had their loans to shaky credits worked； the owners of the associations would have pocketed the profits。 In the many cases in which the loans will fail； the taxpayer will pick up the bill。 To paraphrase Jackie Mason； at these associations it was the managers who should have been wearing the ski masks。
最后还有一个令人不平的附带说明，零息债券的代价并不只由直接参与者自己承担而已，一些储贷机构由于是这些垃圾债券的大买家，利用由联邦政府所保险的人民储蓄存款来投资，为了尽量美化帐面盈余数字，这些单位将这些即使还没有收到的超高利息收入全部认列，许多储贷机构现在却因此面临严重的问题，若是他们那些债信不佳的债务人付出本金，当然状况就可以顺利解决，但问题是通常他们都付不出本金，到最后还是必须由整体纳税义务人来买单，套句Jackie Mason的话，应该是由这些储贷机构的经理人来戴区棍球面罩。
Mistakes of the First Twenty…five Years （A Condensed Version）
头25年所犯的错误（浓缩版）
To quote Robert Benchley； 〃Having a dog teaches a boy fidelity； perseverance； and to turn around three times before lying down。〃 Such are the shortings of experience。 Nevertheless； it's a good idea to review past mistakes before mitting new ones。 So let's take a quick look at the