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tter would produce a very alert driver。 But another certain consequence would be a deadly … and unnecessary … accident if the car hit even the tiniest pothole or sliver of ice。 The roads of business are riddled with potholes； a plan that requires dodging them all is a plan for disaster。
迷信这些债券的门徒一再强调不可能发生崩盘的危机，钜额的债务会迫使公司经理人更专注于经营，就像是一位驾驶开着一辆轮胎上插着一只匕首的破车，大家可以确定这位驾驶一定会小心翼翼地开车，当然我们绝对相信这位驾驶一定会相当小心谨慎，但是另外却还有一个变量必须克服，那就是只要车子碰到一个小坑洞或是一小片雪就可能造成致命的车祸，而偏偏在商业的道路上，遍布着各种坑坑洞洞，一个要求必须避开所有坑洞的计画实在是一个相当危险的计画。
In the final chapter of The Intelligent Investor Ben Graham forcefully rejected the dagger thesis： 〃Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words； we venture the motto； Margin of Safety。〃 Forty…two years after reading that； I still think those are the right three words。 The failure of investors to heed this simple message caused them staggering losses as the 1990s
began。
在葛拉罕智能型投资人的最后一章中，很强烈地驳斥这种匕首理论，如果要将稳健的投资浓缩成三字箴言，那就是安全边际，在读到这篇文章的42年后，我仍深深相信这三个字，没能注意到这个简单原则的投资人在1990年代开始就会慢慢尝到损失的痛苦。
At the height of the debt mania； capital structures were concocted that guaranteed failure： In some cases； so much debt was issued that even highly favorable business results could not produce the funds to service it。 One particularly egregious 〃kill… 'em…at…birth〃 case a few years back involved the purchase of a mature television station in Tampa； bought with so much debt that the interest on it exceeded the station's gross revenues。 Even if you assume that all labor； programs and services were donated rather than purchased； this capital structure required revenues to explode … or else the station was doomed to go broke。 （Many of the bonds that financed the purchase were sold to now…failed savings and loan associations； as a taxpayer； you are picking up the tab for this folly。）
在债务恐慌最高点的时候，资本结构注定导致失败的发生，有些公司的融资杠杆高到即使是再好的企业也无法负担，有一个特别惨、一出生就夭折的案例，就是一个坦帕湾地方电视台的购并案，这个案子一年的利息负担甚至还超过他一整年的营收，也就是说即使所有的人工、节目与服务都不须成本，且营收也能有爆炸性的成长，这家电视台还是会步上倒闭的命运，（许多债券都是由现在大多倒闭的储贷机构买进，所以身为纳税义务人的你，等于间接替这些愚蠢的行为买单）。
All of this seems impossible now。 When these misdeeds were done； however； dagger…selling investment bankers pointed to the 〃scholarly〃 research of academics； which reported that over the years the higher interest rates received from low…grade bonds had more than pensated for their higher rate of default。 Thus； said the friendly salesmen； a diversified portfolio of junk bonds would produce greater net returns than would a portfolio of high…grade bonds。 （Beware of past…performance 〃proofs〃 in finance： If history books were the key to riches； the Forbes 400 would consist of librarians。）
现在看起来这种情况当然不太可能再发生，当这些错误的行为发生时，专门贩卖匕首的投资银行家纷纷把责任推给学术单位，表示研究显示低等级债券所收到的利息收入应该可以弥补投资人所承担可能收不回本金的风险，因此推断说好心的业务员所介绍给客户的高收益债券将给客户带来比高等级债券更好的收益，（特别要小心财务学上过去的统计资料实证，若历史资料是致富之钥，那么富比士四百大富豪不都应该是图书馆员吗？）
There was a flaw in the salesmen's logic … one that a first… year student in statistics is taught to recognize。 An assumption was being made that the universe of newly…minted junk bonds was identical to the universe of low…grade fallen angels and that； therefore； the default experience of the latter group was meaningful in predicting the default experience of the new issues。 （That was an error similar to checking the historical death rate from Kool…Aid before drinking the version served at Jonestown。）
不过这些业务员的逻辑有一个漏洞，这是统计系的新生都知道的，那就是假设所有新发行的垃圾债券都与以前的失翼天使一样，也就是说前者还不出本金的机率与后者是一样的，（这种错误就像是在喝Jonestown的毒药之前，以过去的死亡率为参考）。
The universes were of course dissimilar in several vital respects。 For openers； the manager of a fallen angel almost invariably yearned to regain investment…grade status and worked toward that goal。 The junk…bond operator was usually an entirely different breed。 Behaving much as a heroin user might； he devoted his energies not to finding a cure for his debt…ridden condition； but rather to finding another fix。 Additionally； the fiduciary sensitivities of the executives managing the typical fallen angel were often； though not always； more finely developed than were those of the junk…bond…issuing financiopath。
这个世界在许多方面当然有很大的不同，对于开拓者来说，失翼天使的经理人无不渴望重新到投资等级的名单之上，，但是垃圾债券的经营者就全然不是那么一回事了，不思解决其为债务所苦的困境，反而偏好运用英雄式的行径，寻找暂时解脱之道，此外失翼天使忠诚的敏感特质通常比那些垃圾债券经营者要来的好的多。
Wall Street cared little for such distinctions。 As usual； the Street's enthusiasm for an idea was proportional not to its merit； but rather to the revenue it would produce。 Mountains of junk bonds were sold by those who didn't care to those who didn't think … and there was no shortage of either。
华尔街对于这样的差异根本就不在乎，通常华尔街关心的不是它到底有多少优缺点，而是它可以产生多少收入，成千上万的垃圾债券就是由这帮不在乎的人卖给那些不懂得思考之人。
Junk bonds remain a mine field； even at prices that today are often a small fraction of issue price。 As we said last year； we have never bought a new issue of a junk bond。 （The only time to buy these is on a day with no 〃y〃 in it。） We are； however； willing to look at the field； now that it is in disarray。
即使现在垃圾债券的市场价格只有发行价格的一点点，它还是个地雷区，就像是去年我们曾经说过的，我们从来不买新发行的垃圾债券，（唯一会买进的时点是没有y之时），不过趁现在市场一遍混乱，我们倒是愿意花点时间看看。
In the case of RJR Nabisco； we feel the pany's credit is considerably better than was generally perceived for a while and that the yield we receive； as well as the potential for capital gain； more than pensates for the risk we incur （though that is far from nil）。 RJR has made asset sales at favorable prices； has added major amounts of equity； and in general is being run well。
在RJR Nabisco这个案子我们认为这家公司的债信要比外界想象中好一点，同时我们感觉潜在的利益，应该可以弥补我们要承担的风险（虽然绝非无风险），RJR资产处份的价格还算不错，股东权益增加了许多，现在经营也渐上轨道了。
However； as we survey the field； most low…grade bonds still look unattractive。 The handiwork of the Wall Street of the 1980s is even worse than we had thought： Many important businesses have been mortally wounded。 We will； though； keep looking for opportunities as the junk market continues to unravel。
然而在我们看了市场以后发现，大部分低等级的债券还是不具吸引力，华尔街1980年代的技术比我们想象中差多了，许多重要生意都大受影响，不过我们还是会继续在垃圾债券市场中寻找好的投资机会。
Convertible Preferred Stocks可转换特别股
We continue to hold the convertible preferred stocks described in earlier reports： 700 million of Salomon Inc； 600 million of The Gillette pany； 358 million of USAir Group； Inc。 and 300 million of Champion International Corp。 Our Gillette holdings will be converted into 12 million shares of mon stock on April 1。 Weighing interest rates； credit quality and prices of the related mon stocks； we can assess our holdings in Salomon and Champion at yearend 1990 as worth about what we paid； Gillette as worth somewhat more； and USAir as worth substantially less。
我们持续持有先前向各位报告过的可转换特别股，包括所罗门7亿美金、吉列6亿美金、美国航空3。58亿美金与冠军企业3亿美金。我们吉列的特别股将会在4月1日转换为1；200万股的普通股，在衡量利率、债信与普通股的价格之后，我们可以确信在所罗门与冠军企业的投资现值应该与我们当初的成本差不多，吉列的价值比成本高，至于美国航空的价值则远低于当初的投资成本。
In making the USAir purchase； your Chairman displayed exquisite timing： I plunged into the business at almost the exact moment that it ran into severe problems。 （No one pushed me； in tennis parlance； I mitted an 〃unforced error。〃） The pany's troubles were brought on both by industry conditions and by the post…merger difficulties it encountered in integrating Piedmont； an affliction I should have expected since almost all airline mergers have been followed by operational turmoil。
在投资美国航空时，本人在下我真是抓对了时点，我几乎是在航空业爆发严重的问题之前，跳进去这个产业，（没有人强迫我，如同在网球场上，我把它形容做是非受迫性失误），美国航空问题的发生，导因于产业本身的状况与对Piedmont购并后所产生的后遗症，这点我应该要早该预料到，因为几乎所有的航空业购并案最后的结果都是一团混乱。
In short order； Ed Colodny and Seth Schofield resolved the second problem： The airline now gets excellent marks for service。 Industry…wide problems have proved to be far more serious。 Since our purchase； the economics of the airline industry have deteriorated at an alarming pace； accelerated by the kamikaze pricing tactics of certain carriers。 The trouble this pri