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sentence: 〃You're doing it。〃
我们很喜欢买股票,不过卖股票又是另外一回事,就这点我们的步伐就像是一个旅行家发现自己身处于只有一个小旅馆的小镇上,房间里没有电视,面对慢慢无聊的长夜,突然间他很兴奋地发现桌上有一本书名为「在本小镇可以做的事」,只是当他翻开书后,里面却只有短短的一句话:「那就是你现在在做的这件事」。
We were lucky in our General Dynamics purchase。 I had paid little attention to the pany until last summer; when it announced it would repurchase about 30% of its shares by way of a Dutch tender。 Seeing an arbitrage opportunity; I began buying the stock for Berkshire; expecting to tender our holdings for a small profit。 We've made the same sort of mitment perhaps a half…dozen times in the last few years; reaping decent rates of return for the short periods our money has been tied up。
我们很高兴能买到通用动力,之前我并未特别留意这家公司,直到去年夏天该公司宣布买回流通在外30%的股权,看到这样难得的套利机会,我开始替Berkshire买进这家公司的股票,预期透过公司买回股份可以小赚一笔,在过去几年中,我们曾经做了好几次类似这样的交易,让短期投入的资金获得相当丰厚的报酬。
But then I began studying the pany and the acplishments of Bill Anders in the brief time he'd been CEO。 And what I saw made my eyes pop: Bill had a clearly articulated and rational strategy; he had been focused and imbued with a sense of urgency in carrying it out; and the results were truly remarkable。
之后我开始研究这家公司,以及Bill Anders在担任该公司CEO短短期间所做的事,没想到让我眼睛一亮,Bill有一套精心设计的策略,他相当专注于把这项策略付诸实行,而最后所得到的成果也相当不错。
In short order; I dumped my arbitrage thoughts and decided that Berkshire should bee a long…term investor with Bill。 We were helped in gaining a large position by the fact that a tender greatly swells the volume of trading in a stock。 In a one…month period; we were able to purchase 14% of the General Dynamics shares that remained outstanding after the tender was pleted。
过不了多久,我就把短期套利的念头拋开,决定Berkshire应该成为Bill的长期投资者,而受惠于买回股份的消息,成交量扩大,我们得以买进大量的部位,在短短一个月期间,我们一口气买进通用动力14%的股份,这是在扣除该公司本身买回的股份之后的比例。
Our equity…investing strategy remains little changed from what it was fifteen years ago; when we said in the 1977 annual report: 〃We select our marketable equity securities in much the way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety。 We want the business to be one (a) that we can understand; (b) with favorable long…term prospects; (c) operated by honest and petent people; and (d) available at a very attractive price。〃 We have seen cause to make only one change in this creed: Because of both market conditions and our size; we now substitute 〃an attractive price〃 for 〃a very attractive price。〃
我们在股权投资的策略跟15年前1977年度报告的那套一样,并没有多大的变化,在选择股票投资所采用的评估方式与买下一整家企业的情况没什么两样,我们希望投资的对象(1)是我们所了解的(2)具有长期的远景(3)由才德兼具的人所经营(4)非常吸引人的合理价格。但考量目前市场的情况与公司的资金规模,我们现在决定将〃非常吸引人的价格〃改成〃吸引人的价格〃。
But how; you will ask; does one decide what's 〃attractive〃? In answering this question; most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: 〃value〃 and 〃growth。〃 Indeed; many investment professionals see any mixing of the two terms as a form of intellectual cross…dressing。
或许你又会问,那么到底应该如何决定价格够不够吸引人呢? 在回答这个问题时,大部分的分析师通常都会选择两种看起来对立的方法,〃价值法〃与〃成长法〃,事实上有许多投资专家会将这两种方法交替运用,就像是轮流换穿衣物一样。
We view that as fuzzy thinking (in which; it must be confessed; I myself engaged some years ago)。 In our opinion; the two approaches are joined at the hip: Growth is always a ponent in the calculation of value; constituting a variable whose importance can range from negligible to enormous and whose impact can be negative as well as positive。
我们觉得这种观念似是而非(为此我个人必须承认,好几年前我也是采用这种方法),基本上我们认为这两种方法本为一体,在计算一家公司的价值时,成长当然是一件很重要的因素,这个变量将会使得所计算出来的价值从很小到极大,所造成的影响有可能是正面的,也有可能是负面的。
In addition; we think the very term 〃value investing〃 is redundant。 What is 〃investing〃 if it is not the act of seeking value at least sufficient to justify the amount paid? Consciously paying more for a stock than its calculated value … in the hope that it can soon be sold for a still…higher price … should be labeled speculation (which is neither illegal; immoral nor … in our view … financially fattening)。
此外,我们也认为所谓的「价值投资」根本就是废话,若是所投入的资金不是为了换取追求相对应的价值的话,那还算是投资吗? 明明知道所付出的成本已经高出其所应有的价值,而只是寄望在短期之内可以用更高的价格卖出根本就是投机的行为,(当然这种行为一点都不会违法,也不违反道德,只是就我们的观点来说,只是在玩吹气球游戏而已)。
Whether appropriate or not; the term 〃value investing〃 is widely used。 Typically; it connotes the purchase of stocks having attributes such as a low ratio of price to book value; a low price…earnings ratio; or a high dividend yield。 Unfortunately; such characteristics; even if they appear in bination; are far from determinative as to whether an investor is indeed buying something for what it is worth and is therefore truly operating on the principle of obtaining value in his investments。 Correspondingly; opposite characteristics … a high ratio of price to book value; a high price…earnings ratio; and a low dividend yield … are in no way inconsistent with a 〃value〃 purchase。
不管适不适当,「价值投资」这个名词常常被人引用,一般而言,它代表投资人以较低的股价/净值比或是本益比或是高的股利收益率买进投资标的,很不幸的是,就算是具备以上所有的特点,投资人还是很难确保所买到的投资标的确有此价值,从而确信他的投资是依照取得企业价值的原意在进行;相对地,以较高的股价/净值比或是本益比或是低的股利收益率买进投资标的,也不一定就代表不是一项有「价值」的投资。
Similarly; business growth; per se; tells us little about value。 It's true that growth often has a positive impact on value; sometimes one of spectacular proportions。 But such an effect is far from certain。 For example; investors have regularly poured money into the domestic airline business to finance profitless (or worse) growth。 For these investors; it would have been far better if Orville had failed to get off the ground at Kitty Hawk: The more the industry has grown; the worse the disaster for owners。
同样的企业成长本身而言,也很难保证就一定代表价值,当然成长通常会对价值有正面的影响,有时是相当重要的一项前提,但这种影响却不是绝对,例如投资人以往将大笔的资金投入到国内的航空业来支持获利无望(或是悲惨)的成长,对于这些投资人来说,应该会希望莱特兄弟当初没有驾着小鹰号成功起飞,航空产业越发达,这些投资人就越悲惨。
Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can invest at incremental returns that are enticing … in other words; only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a dollar of long…term market value。 In the case of a low…return business requiring incremental funds; growth hurts the investor。
成长只有当企业将资金投入到可以增加更多报酬的活动上,投资人才有可能受惠,换句话说,只有当每投入的一块钱可以在未来创造超过一块钱的价值时,成长才有意义,至于那些需要资金但却只能创造出低报酬的公司,成长对于投资人来说反而是有害的。
In The Theory of Investment Value; written over 50 years ago; John Burr Williams set forth the equation for value; which we condense here: The value of any stock; bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows … discounted at an appropriate interest rate … that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset。 Note that the formula is the same for stocks as for bonds。 Even so; there is an important; and difficult to deal with; difference between the two: A bond has a coupon and maturity date that define future cash flows; but in the case of equities; the investment analyst must himself estimate the future 〃coupons。〃 Furthermore; the quality of management affects the bond coupon only rarely … chiefly when management is so inept or dishonest that payment of interest is suspended。 In contrast; the ability of management can dramatically affect the equity 〃coupons。〃
在John Burr Williams 50年前所写的投资价值理论当中,老早便已提出计算价值的公式,。我把它浓缩列示如下:今天任何股票、债券或是企业的价值,都将取决于其未来年度剩余年限的现金流入与流出,以一个适当的利率加以折现后所得的期望值,特别注意这个公式对于股票与债券皆一体适用,不过这里有一点很重要但却很难克服差异的差异,那就是债券有债票与到期日可以清楚的定义未来的现金流入,但是就股票而言,投资者必须自己去分析未来可能得到的票息,更重要的是管理阶层的品质对于债券的影响相当有限,顶多因为公司无能或是诚信明显不足而延迟债息的发放,但是对于股票投资者来说,管理阶层的能力将大大影响未来票息发放的能力。
The investment shown by the discounted…flows…of…cash calculation to be the cheapest is the one that the investor should purchase … irrespective of whether the business grows or doesn't; displays volatility or smoothness in its earnings; or carries a high price or low in relation to its current earnings and book value。 Moreover; though the value equation has usually shown equities to be cheaper than bonds; that