按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
Figure 5。3 Double Tops and Bottoms； Volume
图5。3 双头和双底；成交量
Callaway Golf （ELY） reached its high of 27。18 in March； at point A； and struggled again near that level； to 26。95 in April； at point B。 A few days after it recoiled from B； the double top became clearly visible。 Many indicators （which we will review later） traced bearish divergences at that time。
高威高尔夫公司（代码ELY）的股票在3月达到27。18的高点，位置为A，然后在附近挣扎，4月达到26。95，位置为B。从B回落后的几天，双顶就很清晰了。很多指标（后面会谈到）在当时跟踪到了看跌背离。
In June the stock collapsed； as the aged founder of the pany； the inventor of the famous Big Bertha golf club； became ill and died。 In a fairly typical emotional reaction； people dumped their stock without stopping to think whether the demise of an individual would ruin a large； well…established pany。 Such declines feed on themselves； as lower prices scare more people into selling。 Notice a fantastic spike of volume； which reflected mass panic。 The low at point C looks like a kangaroo tail； although not in its most classical form。 Prices rallied above 17 at point D in what is called “a dead cat bounce；” not out of any great bullishness but simply as a reaction to the decline。
6月股票崩跌，原因是公司年老的创立者，也是著名的大贝尔塔球杆的发明人，生病去世了。在典型的恐慌情绪中大众平仓，他们也不想想，一个人的去世是否会毁了一个著名的公司。这样的下跌害了他们自己，因为下跌的股票引发更多人因恐惧而卖出。注意那个大成交量，反映了大众的恐慌。低点C看起来像袋鼠尾巴，虽然不是经典模式。价格在D点反弹到17，这叫“死猫反弹”，不会有大的上涨，只是下跌时的反弹。
At the right edge of the chart ELY is grinding down towards its recent bottom on low volume。 If it recoils from that level； it’ll establish a double bottom。 This is a fairly typical pattern … a crash； followed by a dead cat bounce； followed by a slow decline into the second bottom。 Once prices rally from the second low； they are likely to usher in a sustainable rise。
在图的右边，高威高尔夫跌到了底部，成交量很低。如果它在这个水平反弹，会建立一个双底。只是典型的模式——崩跌，紧跟着一个死猫反弹，然后慢跌到第2个底部。一旦价格从第2个低点反弹，它们很可能会引起稳定的上涨。
A mirror image of this situation occurs at market bottoms。 The market falls to a new low at which enough smart bears start covering shorts and the market rallies。 Once that rally peters out and prices start sinking again； all eyes are on the previous low … will it hold？ If bears are strong and bulls skittish； prices will break below the first low； and the downtrend will continue。 If bears are weak and bulls are strong； the decline will stop in the vicinity of the old low； creating a double bottom。 Technical indicators help decipher which of the two is more likely to happen。
在这样的市场底部会发生镜像原理。市场创新低时，聪明的空头会回补空头仓位，造成市场反弹。一旦反弹结束，市场继续下跌，所有的眼睛都会看着之前的低点——会守住它吗？如果空头很强，多头担惊受怕，价格会跌过第1个低点，下跌会继续。如果空头很弱，多头很强，下跌会在第1个低点附近停下来，形成双底。技术指标会帮助分析那种情况可能会发生。
Triangles A triangle is a congestion area； a pause when winners take profits and new trend followers get aboard； while their opponents trade against the preceding trend。 It is like a train station。 The train stops to let passengers off and pick up new ones； but there is always a chance this is the last stop on the line and it may turn back。
三角形 三角形是暂时的成交密集区，赢家兑现利润，新的趋势跟踪者上车，然而他们的对手则逆市交易。就像是火车站。火车停靠，乘客下车，新乘客上车，但是也很有可能这是最后一站，市场可能反转。
The upper boundary of a triangle shows where sellers overpower buyers and prevent the market from rising。 The lower boundary shows where buyers overpower sellers and prevent the market from falling。 As the two start to converge； you know a breakout is ing。 As a general rule； the trend that preceded the triangle deserves the benefit of the doubt。 The angles between triangle walls reflect the balance of power between bulls and bears and hint at the likely direction of a breakout。
三角形的上边表明卖家的力量比买家强，阻止了市场上涨。下边表明买家比卖家强，阻止了市场下跌。双方聚集时，你知道突破会发生。通常原则下，趋势超过三角形则不必担心。三角形的角度反映了多头和空头的力量平衡，暗示了突破的方向。
An ascending triangle has a flat upper boundary and a rising lower boundary。 The flat upper line shows that bears have drawn a line in the sand and sell whenever the market es to it。 They must be a pretty powerful group； calmly waiting for prices to e to them before unloading。 At the same time buyers are being more aggressive。 They snap up merchandise and keep raising the floor under the market。
上涨的三角形，它的上边是水平的，还有一个上涨的下边。水平上边表明空头已经画了一条线，会拼命卖。他们也许很强大，安静地等待价格达到卖点。同时，买家也很积极。他们积极抢购，把市场的底部抬高。
Figure 5。4 Triangles； Pennants； and Rectangles
图5。4 三角形，旗形和矩形
Charts patterns are the footprints of bulls and bears。 Patterns A and D are called pennants … a tight weave of prices that follows a sharp move up or down its flagpole。 When a pennant flies in the direction of the trend （A）； it is usually followed by a sharp reversal。 When it flies against the preceding trend （D）； it is a consolidation pattern and the trend usually continues。 Place your entry orders accordingly； above or below a pennant’s boundary。
图形模式是多头和空头的足迹。模式A和D叫旗形——紧紧排列在一起的价格上涨或下跌形成旗杆。当一个旗形沿着趋势（A）的方向飘扬时，通常后面就会发生强烈的反转。当一个旗行逆着趋势（D）的方向飘扬时，它是坚固的模式，趋势通常会继续。相应地下单，在一个旗形的上面或下面边缘处下单。
Pattern B is a symmetrical triangle and pattern C is an ascending triangle。 Breakouts from triangles tend to follow the trends that preceded them； especially when triangles are pact； consisting of only a few bars。 Pattern E is a rectangle； notice how bulls and bears push against the rectangle walls； creating brief false breakouts … do not jump in too early。 When prices decisively break out of a rectangle； the reversal is plete。
模式B是对称三角形，模式C是上涨三角形。三角形的突破一般会跟随之前的趋势，尤其是三角形排列紧密，只有几条日线时。模式E是矩形，注意多头和空头是如何向矩形边缘推动的，制造了短暂的假突破——不要抢先跳入。当价格决定跳出矩形时，反转就完成了。
At the right edge of the chart； prices are below a rectangle that provides severe overhead resistance； the price is like a drowning man under an ice floe。 The trend is down； with rallies presenting shorting opportunities。
在图的右边，价格在矩形以下，矩形成为一个压力，价格就像是浮冰下即将淹死的人。趋势是下跌，反弹提供了做空的机会。
On what party should you bet？ Nobody knows who’ll win the election； but savvy traders tend to place buy orders slightly above the upper line of an ascending triangle。 Since sellers are on the defensive； if the attacking bulls succeed； the breakout is likely to be steep。 This is the logic of buying upside breakouts from ascending triangles。
你想赌那边？没有人知道谁会赢，但是聪明的交易者趋向在上涨的三角形上边一点点买入。因为卖家出于被动地位，如果多头的攻击顺利，突破就是急剧上涨的。这就是在上涨三角形的上面突破处买入的原因。
A descending triangle has a flat lower boundary and a declining upper boundary。 The horizontal lower line shows that bulls are pretty determined； calmly waiting to buy at a certain level。 At the same time； sellers are being more aggressive。 They keep selling at lower and lower levels； pushing the market closer to the line drawn by buyers。
下跌三角形有一条水平的下边，还有一条下跌的边。水平的下边表明多头很坚定，冷静地在这个水平等待买入的机会。同时，卖家很激进。他们在越来越低的水平卖出，把价格推到买家画线的地方。
As a trader； which way will you bet on the bulls or the bears？ Experienced traders tend to place their orders to sell short slightly below the lower line of a descending triangle。 Let buyers defend that line； but if bulls collapse after a long defense； a break is likely to be sharp。 This is the logic of shorting downside breakouts from descending triangles。
作为交易者，你会赌多头赢，还是赌空头赢？有经验的交易者趋向在下跌三角形下水平线下面一点点做空。让买家去防守这条线，但是如果多头在防守时崩溃，突破是很厉害的。这是在下跌三角形下方突破的地方做空的原因。
A symmetrical triangle shows that both bulls and bears are equally confident。 Bulls keep paying up； and bears keep selling lower。 Neither group is backing off； and their fight must be resolved before prices reach the tip of the triangle。 The breakout is likely to go in the direction of the trend that preceded the triangle。
对称三角形表明多头和空头都很有自信。多头愿意出钱做多，空头继续做空。双方都不后退，他们必须在三角形达到一个角的地方决出胜负。突破倾向发生在比三角形强的趋势方向。
Volume Each unit of volume represents the actions of two individuals … a buyer and a seller。 It can be measured by several numbers： shares； contracts； or dollars that have changed hands。 Volume is usually plotted as a histogram below prices。 It provides important clues about the actions of bulls and bears。 Rising volume tends to confirm trends； and falling volume brings them into question。
成交量 每单位的成交量都代表了2个人的行为——1个买家和1个卖家。可以用多种数字来计算：股票数量，合约数量，或者