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a buy signal。 This is good； we want our MAs to respond to new prices。 The trouble is that 10 days later； when that high number drops from the window； the MA also drops； giving a sell signal。 This is ridiculous because if we shorten a simple MA by one day； we’ll get that sell signal a day sooner； and if we lengthen it by a day； we’ll get it a day later。 We can engineer our own signals by fiddling with the length of a simple MA！
什么类型的均线？简单的均线就是把时间参数内的价格加总，然后除以时间参数的数值。比如，10日简单均线，把10天的收盘价加总，再除以10。简单均线的麻烦是每个价格影响了2次——进来时和出去时。新的高价推高了均线，提示买入信号。这不错，我们需要均线对价格有反应。问题是，10天后，当那个高价被剔出后，均线又下跌了，提示卖出信号。这太荒谬了，我们提前一天，我们就提前得到了卖出信号，如果我们加一天，我们就推迟一天得到信号。我们可以自己通过改变简单均线的时间参数来改变信号！
An exponential moving average （EMA） overes this problem。 It reacts only to ining prices； to which it assigns more weight。 It does not drop old prices from its time window； but slowly squeezes them out with the passage of time。
指数移动平均线（张轶注：EMA在后面全部翻译成均线，请留心，因为作者大多指这个均线）克服了这个问题。它只对新价格有反应，给最新的价格最大的权重。它不会把老价格剔除，只是慢慢地把它们挤出去。
EMA=Ptoday·K＋EMAyesterday·（1…K）
Where
这里的定义
K=2/（N＋1）
N= the number of days in the EMA （selected by trader）
N=均线所使用的天数（交易者自己决定）
Ptoday＝today’s price
Ptoday＝今天的价格
EMAyesterday＝the EMA of yesterday
EMAyesterday＝昨天的均线值
Few people calculate indicators by hand these days … puters do it faster and more accurately。 If we decide to look at a 22…bar EMA of closing prices； K= 2/（22＋1）=2/23=0。087。 Multiply the latest closing price by that figure； multiply yesterday’s EMA by 0。913 （i。e。； 1…0。087）； add the two； and arrive at today’s EMA。 Traders sometimes ask where to get an EMA in the beginning。 Begin by calculating a 22…bar simple MA and then switch to the EMA。 Most indicators require you to have one or two months of data before they start giving meaningful signals。
现在很少有人手算这些指标了——电脑算的更快，更准。如果我们想知道22日均线收盘价，K= 2/（22＋1）=2/23=0。087。用最新的收盘价乘以这个数字，用0。913（也就是1…0。087）乘以昨天的均线值，加上这两个值，我们得到了今天的均线值。交易者有时问一开始怎么算均线值。先算22日的简单均线，然后转换成指数移动平均线。大部分指标都要求你提供一个月或两个月的数据，这样才会产生有意义的信号。
Trading Signals The most important message of a moving average is the direction of its slope。 When the EMA rises； it shows that the crowd is being more optimistic and bullish； which is a good time to be long。 When it falls； it shows that the crowd is being more pessimistic and bearish。 It is a good time to be short。
交易信号 均线的重要信息是它的坡度。当均线上涨时，它表明大众很乐观，是多头，此时最好做多。当它下跌时，它表明大众很悲观，是空头，此时最好做空。
When a moving average points up； trade that market from the long side。 When a moving average points down； trade that market from the short side。 As a trader； you have three options： go long； go short； or stand aside。 A moving average takes away one of those。 When it points up； it prohibits you from shorting and tells you to go long or stand aside。 When it points down； it prohibits you from buying and tells you to look only for shorts or stay out。 When an EMA starts jerking up and down； it indicates a vacillating； trendless market； it is better to stop using trend…following methods。 Continue to monitor the EMA； but take its signals at a discount until a new trend emerges。
当均线上涨时，考虑做多；当均线下跌时，考虑做空。作为交易者，你有3个选择：做多，做空，或观望。均线会提示一种方式。均线上涨，它禁止你做空，告诉你做多或观望。它下跌时，它禁止你做多，告诉你只能做空或观望。如果均线忽上忽下，这表明市场很犹豫，没有趋势，但是可以把它的信号作为一种妥协，直到新的趋势出现。
The only time when it is OK to override the message of a moving average is when trying to pick a bottom after a bullish divergence between MACD…Histogram （described below） and price。 If you do that； be sure to use tight stops。 If you succeed； bank your profits but do not think that the rules of the game have changed。 A trader who thinks he is above the rules bees careless and loses money。
唯一可以利用均线信号的时机是在MACD柱（后面会解释）和价格形成看涨背离的时候找到底部。如果你这么做了，一定要用严格的止损。如果你成功了，把利润存入银行，但不要以为这个游戏规则变了。交易者如果以为自己能战胜原则，他就会变得粗心，就会亏钱。
Enter long positions in the vicinity of a rising MA。 Enter short positions in the vicinity of a falling MA。 Use MA to differentiate between “value trades” and “greater fool theory trades。” Most uptrends are punctuated by declines； when prices return to the EMA。 When we buy near the moving average； we buy value and can place a tight stop slightly below the EMA。 If the rally resumes； we’ll make money； but if the market turns against us； the loss will be small。 Buying near the EMA helps maximize gains and minimize risks。
在上涨的均线附近建仓做多。在下跌的均线附近建仓做空。用均线来区分“价值投资”和“傻瓜理论”。大部分上涨都会伴随着下跌，价格会回到均线。当我们在均线附近买入时，我们买的是价值，可以在均线下面一点设置止损点。如果上涨继续，我们就赚钱；但是如果市场下跌，亏损也不多。在均线附近买入能帮助利润最大化，风险最小化。
Figure 5。5 Moving Average … Major Trend
图5。5 均线——主趋势
An exponential moving average is slow but steady； like a directional indicator on a steamroller。 EMA works in all timeframes but shines on the weeklies； where it helps you stay with the major trend no matter how hard it tries to shake you off。 Trading in the direction of a weekly moving average should help you get ahead of many traders。 You can position yourself in the direction of the EMA and hold； or else trade in and out； using daily charts。
均线慢但是稳定，像方向指标。均线在不同的时间周期都可以使用，但在周线图上表现最好，能帮助你待在主趋势上，无论市场怎么洗盘都不必下来。在周线图上按照均线的方向交易，表明你比其他交易者强。你可以利用日线图上的均线建仓，或进进出出。
This 26…week EMA has tracked the entire glorious bull market in YHOO； from its obscure beginnings； to the breathtaking 250 peak； and back into the doghouse。 If you wake up in the morning； look at the weekly EMA； and trade in its direction； you will not be in too bad a shape！
本图利用26周均线跟踪了雅虎公司整个辉煌的上涨，慢慢地开始，达到最高点250，然后跌回原形。如果你早上起来，看着周线图上的均线，按照它的方向买入，结果肯定不差！
There are no perfect indicators； and an EMA has its share of difficulties when markets go flat。 When the EMA starts to quiver； as it did in 1999； it is time to stand aside or trade short term； not counting on a major trend。
没有完美的指标，当市场走平时均线的缺点就暴露了。当均线开始振荡时，就像1999年，此时最好观望，或做短线，不要指望有大趋势。
Notice the three tails in YHOO （and the fourth； not as pure as the first three）。 Every time there was a tail； the price got halved within weeks。
注意雅虎的3条尾巴（第4条不明显）。只要出现了尾巴，股价在数周内就跌了一半。
At the right edge of the chart prices are flat and EMA is declining。 Prices are closer to the bottom than they are to the top； but there is no rush to buy。 Let the EMA flatten out and tick up before positioning for a new major bull move。
在图的右边，价格走平，均线在下跌。价格接近底部，但没有必要冲动去买。等均线走平并上涨，再开始进仓，等待上涨。
Figure 5。6 Value Trades and Greater Fool Theory Trades
图5。6 价值交易和傻瓜理论（张轶注：本书中的价值就是指均值，不要理解错了）
When you buy near a rising moving average； you buy value （points D and F）。 Waiting for such opportunities requires patience； but it is infinitely safer than chasing rallies。 Those who buy high above the EMA pay above value； hoping to meet a greater fool who will pay them even more。 Anxious traders who buy near the tops （points C and E） get shaken out； or else they tensely wait to get out at breakeven。
当你在均线附近买入，你买的是价值（D点和F点）。等待这样的机会需要耐心，但绝对比追高安全。在均线之上太高的地方买的人，希望能等到傻瓜，其实是要自己买单的。焦急的交易者在高点买入（C点和E点），会被洗出来，或者是焦急地等待不亏不赚时出场。
Many stocks and futures have typical behavior patterns； and you should try to identify them and use them。 At the time of this writing； EBAY likes to have kangaroo tails （A； B； C； and E）。 The C tail had the most classical shape； but others worked also。 Knowing what pattern to expect helps you recognize it a little sooner when it appears。
很多股票和期货有典型的行为模式，你应该尽量确认和使用它们。在写这个的时候，易贝股票准备出现代鼠尾巴（A，B，C和E）。C尾巴是最经典的形状，其它几个则一般。如果你知道你在等待什么模式，这样当它出现时你能很快就认出来。
At the right edge of the chart the EMA has stopped rising and begun to flutter。 The bull move is over。 If you are a trend trader； it is time to move over to other； trending stocks。 Keep an eye on EBAY； waiting for a new trend to emerge。
在图的右边，均线停止上涨，开始振荡。上涨结束了。如果你是趋势交易者，此时应该换股票了，换到有趋势的股票。同时盯着易贝，等它形成新的趋势。
If we buy high above the EMA； our actions say； “I am a fool； I am overpaying； but I hope to meet a greater fool do