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If we buy high above the EMA； our actions say； “I am a fool； I am overpaying； but I hope to meet a greater fool down the road who’ll pay me even more。” Betting on the greater fool theory is a poor idea。 There are very few fools in the markets。 Financial markets do not attract foolish people； and counting on them is a losing proposition。
如果我们在均线上面很高的地方买，等于在说：“我是傻瓜，我买贵了，但是我希望有另外一个傻瓜用更贵的价格买走。”用傻瓜理论来赌是糟糕的，期望有傻瓜接盘，这是失败的计划。
There are times when wild rallies in high…flying stocks seem to vindicate the greater fool theory。 Stocks with no assets or earnings can fly on hot air。 A value trader who feels he is missing those spectacular moves has a choice。 He can stick to his method； soberly saying； “Can’t catch them all。” Or he may decide； “When living with the wolves； howl like a wolf” and start buying upside breakouts。 If you do that； remember； you are now engaged in greater fool theory trading and the only asset separating you from the manic crowd is your risk control … your stops and money management。
有时候，股票飙升，似乎违反了傻瓜理论。没有资金或收益的股票可以飞的很高。价值交易者觉得自己错过了大波动。他可以坚持自己的方法，清醒地说：“不能追了。”或者他可以决定：“既然和狼一起生活，就要像狼一样嚎叫。”他开始在突破出买入。如果你这么做，记住，你在根据傻瓜理论交易，能把你和疯狂大众分开的唯一方法是——你的止损和资金管理。
The same rules apply to shorting in downtrends。 When you go short on a rally to the EMA； you are selling value … before the market reverses and starts destroying value again。 A greater fool theorist shorts far below the EMA … the farther away； the greater the fool。
在下跌趋势做空时也可以用同样的原则。当你在反弹时做空，你在卖出价格——当市场反弹时，再次摧毁价值。傻瓜理论实践者在均线下面很低的地方做空——越低越傻。
Use a system of dual moving averages to identify trends and enter positions。 You may select an EMA that tracks your market well； but it moves so explosively that prices never react back to that EMA； denying you a chance to put on a value trade。 To solve this problem； you can add a second moving average。 Use the longer EMA to indicate the trend； and the shorter to find entry points。
利用双线系统去确认趋势和进场点。也许你使用一条均线跟踪市场，效果不错，但是当市场飙涨时，价格根本不回到均线，你无法做价值交易。为了解决这个问题，你可以再加一条均线。用长期均线来指明趋势，用短期均线找到进场点。
Suppose you find that a 22…day EMA does a good job identifying trends in your market。 Plot it； but then divide its length in half and plot an 11…day EMA on the same screen in a different color。 Continue to use the 22…day EMA to identify bull and bear moves； but use pullbacks to the shorter EMA to identify entry points。
假如你发现22日均线可以很好地确认市场趋势。可以用它画图，还可以把它对半变成11日均线，2者可以用在同一个屏幕上，用不同的颜色区分。继续使用22日均线确认上涨和下跌的波动，但是用回调到11日均线来确认进场点。
Moving averages help identify trends and decide whether to trade long or short。 They help mark value areas for entering trades。 To find exit points； we turn to our next tool； channels on moving averages。
均线可以帮助确认趋势，决定是否做多或做空。它们能帮助指出价值区域，以方便进场交易。要找到出场点，我们会谈下一个工具，均线的通道。
Channels
通道
Markets are manic…depressive beasts。 They rise in powerful rallies； only to collapse in breathtaking declines。 A stock catches the public’s fancy； shoots up 20 points one day； and then slides 24 points down the next。 What drives those moves？ Fundamental values change slowly； but wavesof greed； fear； optimism； and despair drive prices up and down。
市场是疯狂的野兽。它们有力的飙涨，只是为了窒息的崩跌。一只股票吸引了大家，第一天涨了20点，第二天又跌了24点。是谁在推动市场？基本面的价值变化慢，但是贪婪，恐惧，乐观，绝望会把价格搞的上上下下。
How can you tell when a market has reached an undervalued or overvalued level； a zone for buying or selling？ Market technicians can use channels to find those levels。 A channel； or an envelope； consists of two lines； one above and one below a moving average。 There are two main types of channels： straight envelopes and standard deviation channels； also known as Bollinger bands。
你如何判断市场已经到了低估或高估的水平，哪个区域适合买卖？技术派用通道来找到这个水平。通道，或包络线，包括2条线，分别在均线的上面或下面。有2种类型的通道：包络线和标准背离通道，也叫布林通道。
In Bollinger bands the spread between the upper and lower lines keeps changing in response to volatility。 When volatility rises； Bollinger bands spread wide； but when markets bee sleepy； those bands start squeezing the moving average。 This feature makes them useful for options traders since volatility drives options prices。 In a nutshell； when Bollinger bands bee narrow； volatility is low； and options should be bought。 When they swing far apart； volatility is high； and options should be sold or written。
布林通道上线和下线之间的空间会随着波动而不同。当波动大时，空间变宽；但是当市场沉静时，空间就和均线挤到一起了。这个特点对期权交易者有用，因为波动会推动期权价格。总体说，当布林通道空间变窄时，波动就小，应该买期权。当布林通道空间变宽时，波动就大，应该卖期权，或者发行期权。
Traders of stocks and futures are better off with straight channels or envelopes。 They keep a steady distance from a moving average； providing steadier price targets。 Draw both lines a certain percentage above or below the EMA。 If you use dual moving averages； draw channel lines parallel to the longer one。
股票和期货交易者最好使用直接通道或包络线。它们和均线保持稳定的距离，提供了稳定的价格目标。它们在均线上面或下面一定比率的地方画线。如果你用双线，在比较长的均线附近画线。
A moving average reflects the average consensus of value； but what is the meaning of a channel？ The upper channel line reflects the power of bulls to push prices above the average consensus of value。 It marks the normal limit of market optimism。 The lower channel line reflects the power of bears to push prices below the average consensus of value。 It marks the normal limit of market pessimism。 A well…drawn channel helps diagnose mania and depression。 Most software programs draw channels according to this formula：
均线反映了对价值的一致看法，但是通道的含义呢？上线反映了多头的力量，要把价格推的更高，它表明了乐观的极限。下线反映了空头的力量，要把价格推的更低，它表明了悲观的极限。画的好的通道能帮助确认狂躁和消沉。大部分软件利用下面的公式画通道。
Upper channel line = EMA ＋ EMA · Channel coefficient
Lower channel line = EMA … EMA · Channel coefficient
通道上线＝EMA ＋ EMA·通道系数
通道下线＝EMA … EMA·通道系数
A well…drawn channel contains the bulk of prices； with only a few extremes poking out。 Adjust the coefficient until the channel contains approximately 95 percent of all prices for the past several months。 Mathematicians call this the second standard deviation channel。 Most software packages make this adjustment very easy。
画得好的通道能包含大部分价格，只有少数价格伸出去。调整参数直到通道能包含过去几个月95％的价格。数学家说这是第二条标准背离通道。大部分软件都能很轻松地使用通道。
Find proper channel coefficients for any market by trial and error。 Keep adjusting them until the channel holds approximately 95％ of all data； with only the highest tops and the lowest bottoms sticking out。 Drawing a channel is like trying on a shirt。 Choose the size in which the entire body fits fortably； with only the wrists and the neck poking out。
可以通过测试的方法找到合适的通道系数。不断调试，直到通道能包含95％的数据，仅仅是最高价和最低价伸出来。画通道就像做衣服，选择好尺寸，直到整个身体都很舒服，仅仅是手腕和颈子伸出来。
Different trading vehicles and timeframes require different channel widths。 Volatile markets require wider channels and higher coefficients。 The longer the timeframe； the wider the channel； weekly channels tend to be twice as wide as dailies。 Stocks tend to require wider channels than futures。 A good time to review and adjust channels in futures is when an old contract nears expiration and you switch to the new front month。
不同的交易工具和时间周期需要不同的通道宽度。波动大的市场需要更宽的通道和更大的系数。时间周期越大，通道要越宽。周线通道一般是日线通道的2倍。股票的通道要比期货的宽。期货市场检验和调试通道的最好时机是旧的合约到期，你换到新的合约时。
A channel drawn in an uptrend tends to fit the peaks。 Rallies in a bull market are much stronger than declines； and bottoms seldom reach the lower channel line。 In a downtrend； a channel tends to track bottoms； while the tops are too limp to rise to the upper channel line。 It is unnecessary to draw two separate channels； one for the tops and the other for the bottoms； just follow the dominant crowd。 In a flat market expect both tops and bottoms to touch their channel lines。
通道画的上涨趋势一般会符合最高点。牛市的上涨比下跌强，底部很难达到通道下线。下跌趋势时，通道一般跟踪底部，顶部很难到到达通道上线。很有必要画2个独立的通道，一个是为了顶部，另一个是为了底部，这样才能跟踪市场大众。在横盘的时候，顶部和底部都会碰到通道线。
When we are bullish； we want to buy value near the rising EMA and take profits when the market bees overvalued … at or above the upper channel line。 When bearish； we want to go short near the falling EMA and cover when the market bees undervalued … at or below the lower channe