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当2日均线力量指数跟踪到下跌趋势下跌的指针，过去2个月有4次或更多的次数比正常状态还低，它表明下跌的疯狂。它确认了多头卖出疯狂，他们不计成本地卖出自己的仓位。这样的指针发生在下跌波动的末期。它们告诉你此时最好兑现空头仓位的利润。价格有时会再次测试指针那天的低点，但是当大多数指标形成看涨背离时，反转快来了。
Spikes are somewhat similar to the kangaroo tails we discussed earlier （see “The Reality of the Chart” on page xx）。 The difference between them is that tails are purely price…based； while Force Index reflects volume as well as prices。 Tails and spikes identify panics among the weakest players。 Once they get flushed out； the trend is ready to reverse。
指针和我们以前说的袋鼠尾巴有点像（请看xx面“图的事实”）。它们之间的区别是，袋鼠尾巴单纯地建立在价格的基础上，力量指数反映了成交量和价格。尾巴和指针确认了市场中弱势一方。一旦他们出场了，趋势就要准备反转。
A Reversal Is ing Trend reversals do not have to e as a surprise； divergences between Force Index and price usually precede them。 If the market is trying to rally； but the peaks in Force Index are being lower； it is a sign of weakness among the bulls。 If a stock or a future is trying to decline； but the bottoms in Force Index are being more shallow； it is a sign of weakness among the bears。
反转来了 趋势的反转不一定就是突如其来的，力量指数和价格的背离通常会走在反转前面。如果市场想涨，但是力量指数的顶变得更低，那是多头变弱的迹象。如果一只股票或期货想跌，但是力量指数的底变的更浅，那是空头变弱的迹象。
Figure 5。12 Force Index … 13…Day EMA
图5。12 力量指数——13日均线
A longer…term Force Index； smoothed with a 13…day EMA； identifies longer… term shifts of power between bulls and bears。 When it is below zero； bears are in control； and when it is above that line； the bulls are in charge。 Divergences between the peaks of this indicator and price peaks precede market tops； whereas divergences between their lows precede important bottoms。
一个长期力量指数，用13日均线来平滑，能确认长期的多头和空头的力量。当它在0以下时，空头主导；当它在0以上时，多头主导。指标顶部和价格顶部的背离走在市场顶部之前，同理底部的背离走在重要的底之前。
In area A； Force Index traces a lower peak during the final price peak。 It reveals that bulls are weak and a top is likely。 A few days later； the EMA ticks down； confirming that a new downtrend has begun。 A mirror image of this pattern occurs in area B； where we see a lower closing price； a higher bottom of Force Index； and a few days later an uptick of the EMA； auguring an important rally。 Notice also the double bottom in that area … a kangaroo tail； followed by a retest of the lows。 This is one of many examples of patterns and indicators reinforcing each other。 In area C Force Index traces a bearish divergence and warns you that the bull move is over。 A few days later the EMA ticks down； and it’s all downhill from there。 The market keeps sending you messages … all you have to do is listen。
在区域A，力量指数跟踪到了次级高点，此时价格达到最后的顶峰。它表明多头变弱，可能到顶了。几天后，均线下跌，确认新趋势开始了。这个模式在区域B同样发生了，我们看见了更低的收盘价，力量指数底部抬高。还请注意那里的双底——一只袋鼠尾巴，后面是对底部的再次测试。很多模式和指标互相验证，这只是其中一个例子。在区域C，力量指数跟踪到了看跌背离，警告你上涨已经结束了。几天后均线下跌了，以后就是一直下跌的。市场总是在给你信号——你要做的就是聆听。
At the right edge of the chart the market is declining； confirmed by the falling EMA。 Force Index is starting to trace a bullish divergence； it is time to tighten stops on short positions。
在图的右边，市场在下跌，下跌的均线确认了这点。力量指数开始跟踪到看跌背离，此时要做好空头仓位的止损。
A divergence between an EMA of Force Index and price shows that the trend is ready to reverse。 Divergences between the patterns of peaks or bottoms of Force Index and prices show that the trend is being weaker。 The power of this message depends on the length of the EMA with which we smooth our Force Index。 If we use a very short EMA of Force Index； such as two days； its divergences help pinpoint the ends of short… term trends lasting a week or so。 If we use a 13…day or longer EMA of Force Index； we can identify the ends of longer…term moves that last months。
力量指数均线和价格之间的背离表明趋势要反转了。力量指数的顶或底与价格的背离表明这个趋势变弱了。这个信息的可信度和我们使用的均线时间长度有关系。如果我们使用很多短的均线，比如2天，能帮助指出1周左右的趋势结束。如果使用13天，或更长时间，我们可以确认1个月的趋势结束。
If the trend is up and you are long； take profits when the two…day EMA of Force Index traces a bearish divergence … a lower peak in the indicator during a higher price in the market。 If you are short； take profits when the two…day EMA of Force Index traces a bullish divergence … a higher bottom in the indicator during a lower price in the market。 Take your profits and monitor the market from the sidelines。 It is cheaper to exit and reenter than sit through a countertrend move。
如果趋势是上涨的，你在做多，当2日均线力量指数跟踪到看跌背离时兑现利润——市场的价格更高，指标的底更低。如果你在做空，当2日均线力量指数跟踪到看涨背离时兑现利润——市场的价格变的更低，指标的底部抬高。兑现利润，观望市场。出场再进场比反转时还不走的成本要低。
It is essential to bine Force Index with trend…following indicators。 If you use this oscillator alone； it will lead to overtrading because it is so sensitive。 In that case； only your broker will make money。 The signals of a short…term oscillator must be filtered using a long…term trend…following indicator。 This is the key principle of the Triple Screen trading system。
把力量指数和趋势跟踪指标放在一起用是很关键的。如果你仅仅使用振荡指标，它会导致过度交易，因为它太敏感。如果这样，你的经纪人就赚钱了。一个短期振荡指标的信号必须用长期趋势跟踪指标来过滤。这是三重滤网交易系统的关键原则。
The Fifth Bullet
第5颗子弹
A clip for an old army rifle held only five bullets。 Going into action with such a weapon forced one to take good aim instead of shooting wildly。 This is a good attitude for trading the markets。
过去步枪只能装5颗子弹。用这种枪打仗，要求你要瞄的准，不能乱开枪。交易也需要这么好的态度。
By now； we have selected four bullets … exponential moving averages； channels； MACD…Histogram； and Force Index。 A moving average and MACD are trend…following indicators。 Channels； Force Index； and MACD… Histogram are oscillators。 What fifth bullet shall we pick？
到目前为止，我们选择了4颗子弹——指数平滑均线，通道，MACD柱和力量指数。均线和MACD是趋势跟踪指标。通道，力量指数和MACD柱是振荡指标。如何选第5颗子弹？
To help you choose your fifth bullet； we’ll review several more tools。 Feel free to range beyond this menu； but make sure to understand how each indicator is constructed and what it measures。 Test your indicators to develop confidence in their signals。
为了帮助你选第5颗子弹，我们要多看几个工具。你可以自由选择，但是要保证你理解了指标的构造和它是如何计算的。测试你的指标才能建立对信号的信心。
In Trading for a Living I described more than a dozen technical indicators。 There are dozens more in other books on technical analysis。 Quality and the depth of understanding are more important than quantity。 A drowning amateur； grasping at straws； keeps adding indicators。 A mature trader selects a few effective tools； learns to use them well； and focuses on system development and money management。
在《以交易为生》中我解释了10多个技术指标。其它书里面还会有几十个指标。质量和理解的深度比数量重要。一个快淹死的业余选手抓着稻草，继续增加指标。成熟的交易者选择几个有用的工具，学习如何正确使用它们，关注系统的发展，重视资金管理。
There are no magic bullets in the markets。 There is no perfect or ultimate indicator。 A trader who bees preoccupied with indicators quickly reaches the point of diminishing returns。 Your choice of analytic tools depends on your trading style。 The idea is to select your tools and quickly move on to where the real money is … system development and risk management。
市场中没有魔力子弹。也没有完美的终极指标。交易者的指标太多，最终是收益越来越少。你的风格不同，选择的分析工具就不同。选择好自己的工具，快速赶到真正值钱的地方——形成系统和风险管理。
Elder…ray Elder…ray is an indicator developed by this author and named for its similarity to x…rays。 It shows the structure of bullish and bearish power below the surface of the markets。 Elder…ray bines a trend…following moving average with two oscillators to show when to enter and exit long or short positions。 Most software developers fail to include Elder…ray in their packages； but you can do it yourself with minimal programming。
艾尔德射线 艾尔德射线是我发明的，根据X光的相似性命名的。它表明了市场下面多头和空头的结构。艾尔德射线结合了趋势跟踪均线和2个振荡指标，以显示何时进场，出场，做多或做空。大部分软件没有艾尔德射线，但是你可以利用比较少的编程来实现。
To plot Elder…ray； divide your puter screen into three horizontal panels。 Plot a chart of the stock you plan to analyze in the top panel and add an exponential moving average。 The second and third panels will contain Bull Power and Bear Power； plotted as histograms。 Here are the Elder…ray formulae：
要想画艾尔德射线，把你的电脑屏幕分成3个水平的板块。在上面的板块显示股票波动，加上指数平滑均线。第2，3个板块包含多头力量和空头力量，用柱状图表示。下面是艾尔德射线德公式：
Bull Power = High … EMA
Bear Power = Low – EMA
多头力量＝最高价－EMA