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走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第46章

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Lown = the lowest low for the selected number of bars
Highn = the highest high for the selected number of bars
n = the number of bars for Stochastic (selected by the trader)
1。 得到%K,快线
%K=(今天的收盘价-最低价n)/(最高价n-最低价n)×100
定义如下:
今天的收盘价=今天的收盘价
最低价n=所选竹线中的最低价
最高价n=所选条向中的最高价
N=随机指标的数量(由交易者自定)
We have to choose the number of days; or bars; over which to calculate Stochastic … the value of n。 If we use a low number; below 10; Stochastic will focus on the recent bars and flag minor turning points。 If we choose a wider window; Stochastic will look at more data and flag major turns; missing minor ones。
我们必须选择天数,或是竹线数,这样才能计算出随机指标——也就是n的值。如果我们使用比较小的数字,比如10,随机指标就会关注最近的竹线,提示比较小的反转点。如果我们选择比较大的范围,随机指标就是看大量数据,提示大的反转,并忽略小的。
How wide should we make the Stochastic window? Since we use oscillators to catch reversals; short…term windows are better; we should reserve longer time windows for trend…following indicators。 Five or seven days are a good starting point; but consider testing longer parameters to find the ones that work best in your market。
我们应该用多大的窗口?因为我们用振荡指标去抓反转,短期窗口比较好,我们应该把长期窗口留给趋势跟踪指标。5或7天是比较好的,但是可以考虑测试更长的参数,以找到适合你的市场的参数。
2。 Obtain %D; the slow line。 We obtain %D by smoothing the fast line %K over a number of bars that is shorter than %K。 For example; if we decide to plot a five…day Stochastic; we will use the value of five for the %K formula; above; and three bars for the %D formula; below:
2。 得到%D,慢线。我们通过给快线%K除以几条竹线来得到慢线%D。比如,如果我们想画5天随机指标,我们就是用5放在上面的公式里,3条竹线放在如下%D公式里面:
%D={'Three…bar sum of (closetoday…lown)'/'Three…bar sum of (Highn…Lown)'}×100
Fast Stochastic is very sensitive to price changes; making its lines appear jagged。 It pays to add one more step and convert it into a smoother Slow Stochastic。 Of course; a puter does this all automatically。
快速随机指标对价格变化很敏感,造成线像锯齿。可以把多做一步把它变成慢的随机指标。当然了,电脑会自动计算。
3。 Convert Fast Stochastic into Slow Stochastic。 The slow line of Fast Stochastic bees the fast line of Slow Stochastic。 Repeat step 2; above; to obtain the slow line %D of Slow Stochastic。
3。 把快速随机指标转化成慢速随机指标。快速随机指标的慢线变成慢速随机指标的快线。重复上面的步骤2,以得到慢速随机指标的%D。
Stochastic is designed to oscillate between 0 and 100。 Low levels mark oversold markets; and high levels mark overbought markets。 Overbought means too high; ready to turn down。 Oversold means too low; ready to turn up。 Draw horizontal reference lines at levels that have marked previous tops and bottoms; starting with 15 near the lows and 85 near the highs。
随机指标在1——100之间振荡。低水平表明市场超卖,高水平表明市场超买。朝买意味着太高,准备下跌。超卖意味着太低,准备上涨。在之前的顶部和底部附近画水平线,在底部15附近,在顶部85附近,作为参考线。
Look for buying opportunities when Stochastic nears its lower reference line。 Look for selling opportunities when Stochastic nears its upper reference line。 Buying when Stochastic is low is emotionally hard because markets usually look terrible near bottoms; which is precisely the right time to buy。 When Stochastic rallies to its upper reference line; it tells you to start looking for selling opportunities。 This also goes against the grain emotionally。 When Stochastic rallies to a top; the market often looks fantastic; which is a good time to sell。
当随机指标在底部的参考线附近时,寻找做多机会。当随机指标在顶部的参考线附近时,寻找卖出机会。在随机指标底部买入是很难的,因为在底部附近市场通常看起来可怕,此时正好是买入的好时机。当随机指标上涨到上参考线,它告诉你要开始找卖出机会。这同样是违反情绪的。当随机指标上涨到顶部,市场通常看起来很疯狂,这是卖出的好时机。
We should not use Stochastic alone; in a mechanical manner。 When a strong uptrend takes off; Stochastic quickly bees overbought and starts flashing sell signals。 In a powerful bear market; Stochastic bees oversold and flashes premature buy signals。 This indicator works well only if you use it with a trend…following indicator and take only those Stochastic signals that point in the direction of the main trend。
我们不应该单独机械地使用随机指标。当强烈的上涨趋势开始时,随机指标很快变成超买,开始给出卖出信号。在强劲的空头市场,随机指标变成超卖,给出过早的买入信号。只有你配合趋势跟踪指标才能用好它,仅仅在指出大趋势时才采用随机指标的信号。
Should a trader wait for Stochastic to turn up to recognize a buy signal? Should he wait for it to turn down to recognize a sell signal? Not really; because by the time Stochastic turns; a new move is usually under way。 If you are looking for an opportunity to enter; the mere fact of Stochastic reaching an extreme gives you a signal。
交易者应该等待随机指标上涨时认出买入信号吗?他应该等它下跌时认出卖出信号吗?不是的,因为当随机指标变化时,新的波动通常早就开始了。如果你寻找进场机会,随机指标达到极限就是信号。
Go long when Stochastic traces a bullish divergence; that is; when prices fall to a new low but the indicator makes a more shallow low。 Go short when Stochastic traces a bearish divergence; that is; when prices rise to a new high but the indicator ticks down from a lower peak than during the previous rally。 In an ideal buying situation; the first Stochastic low is below and the second above the lower reference line。 The best sell signals occur when the first top of Stochastic is above and the second below the upper reference line。
当随机指标跟踪到看涨背离时,也就是说,当价格跌到新低,但是指标只是达到比较浅的低点时做多。当随机指标跟踪到看跌背离时,也就是说,当价格上涨到新高,但是指标下跌到次高点,比之前的高点低时做空。理想的做多状况,是第一个低点低,第二个低点在低点参考线之上。最好的卖出信号发生在,当第一个顶部在上面,第二个顶部在上边的参考线之下。


Figure 5。14 Stochastic
图5。14 随机指标
It may feel good to buy when prices are high and it brings relief to sell when prices fall; but Stochastic helps you do the right thing … buy low and sell high。 When it declines to its lower reference line; it tells you the market is oversold and gives a signal to buy (points B; C; and F)。 Whether you buy or not; low Stochastic prevents you from shorting when it falls to low levels。
当价格高时卖出,感觉不错;当价格低时买入,感觉轻松。但是随机指标帮助你做正确的事——低买高卖。当它跌到下边的参考线时,它告诉你市场是超卖的,给你一个买入信号(B,C,F点)。无论你买或卖,低点的随机指标禁止你在低点水平做空。
When Stochastic rises to its upper reference line; it gives a sell signal (points A; D; G; and H)。 A sell signal may be premature in a strong uptrend; but whether you take it or not; one thing is clear … it is too late to buy。 Stochastic helps you avoid chasing trends。
当随机指标上涨到上边的参考线,它给出了卖出信号(A,D,G,H点)。在强势的上涨趋势中,卖出信号可能是过早的,但是无论你是否接受它,一件事是明确的,不能再买了。随机指标帮助你避免追高。
Divergences give the strongest signals。 At point E; Exxon rises to a double top; while Stochastic traces a lower top … a bearish divergence; a strong sell signal。 A powerful rally begins in March; but by May there is a bearish divergence … a sign that the party is ing to an end。 There is one more chance to sell and go short when a triple bearish divergence appears at point I … it is all downhill from there。
背离的信号最强。在E点,埃克森股票上涨到双顶,此时随机指标跟踪到次高——这是看跌背离,一个强烈的卖出信号。强劲的上涨开始于3月,但是在5月出现了看跌背离——这是上涨结束的信号。当I点发生第三个看跌背离时,这是卖出和做空的机会——从此开始下跌。
At the right edge of the chart XOM is declining; confirmed by the falling EMA。 Stochastic is trying to trace a bullish divergence; but the second bottom is almost as low as the first; the bears are very strong; and the decline is likely to continue。
在本图的右边,埃克森在跌,下跌的均线确认了这点。随机指标跟踪到了看涨背离,但是第二个底部和第一个底部差不多深,空头还是很强,下跌可能要继续。
Do not buy when Stochastic is above its upper reference line and do not sell short when it is below its lower reference line。 These “no go” rules are probably the most useful messages of Stochastic。 Moving averages are better than Stochastic at identifying trends; MACD…Histogram is better at identifying reversals; channels are better at identifying profit targets; and Force Index is sharper at catching entry and exit points。 The trouble with them is that they give action signals most of the time。 Stochastic identifies danger zones; just like a line of red flags on a ski slope marks unsafe areas for skiers。 It says “no go” just when you feel tempted to chase a trend。
当随机指标在上边的参考线以上时不要买入;当它在下边的参考线以下时不要做空。这些“不要”的原则恐怕是最有用的随机指标信号。均线确认趋势的能力比随机指标强,MACD柱在确认反转点时比较好,通道确认利润目标比较好,力量指数在抓住进场点和出场点很厉害。它们的问题是它们总是给出信号。随机指标确认危险区域,就像在滑雪的时候有红旗插在危险的地方。它在你要追高的时候说“不”。
Ready to Hunt?  Your choice of indicators depends on personal preferences; just like selecting a car。 Be sure to bine 
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