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etween quiet and active periods； and the Thermometer helps you identify them。
内维蒂雅公司股票是活跃交易者喜欢的市场之一。看看它的很多特征——强势涨到100，形成三顶，MACD看跌背离，接着就下跌。市场在平静和活跃之间振荡，温度帮助你确认它们。
At point A； the stock is in an uptrend； while the Thermometer has been below its 22…day EMA for five days。 This is a quiet before the storm。 An explosive move in the direction of the trend （point B） rewards buyers。 At the same time a very high Thermometer reading； three times above the average； warns that the fun and games are over； the move is exhausted； and it is time to take profits。 At point C the Thermometer shrinks again； spending five days below its EMA and warning that a sharp move is ing。 Since prices are above their EMA； expect a decline。 A similar message emerges at point D。 After the next rally （point E）； an extremely high reading of the Thermometer； more than four times the average； warns that it is a good time to take short…term profits。 Prices make a triple top near 100； MACD…Histogram traces a severe bearish divergence； and at points F and G prices hang flat。 This is another quiet before the storm as bears swing the stock down。
在A点，股票在上涨趋势，温度已经在均线之下5天了。这是暴风雨之前的安静。在B点的爆炸式上涨回报了买家。同时温度值很高，比均线值高3倍，警告说游戏的乐趣结束了，波动竭尽了，此时最好兑现利润。在C点温度又下跌了，在均线之下5天，警告说剧烈的波动来临。因为价格在均线之上，期望会下跌。在D点发出了类似的信息。第二次上涨之后（E点），温度值特别高，是均线的4倍多，警告说此时最好兑现短期利润。价格在100左右形成三顶，MACD柱跟踪到了严重的看跌背离，F点和G点都有提示。这是在下跌前又一次暴风雨之前的安静。
The EMA of the Thermometer tells you how far today’s high or low is likely to be above or below yesterday’s extreme。 This is a useful piece of intelligence for those who like to buy low or sell high； you can place your order for the day near the projected extreme。
温度的均线告诉你和前一天比，今天的最高点和最低点可能在哪里。对喜欢低买高卖的人来说，这是有用的信息。你可以在可能的极限位置下单。
At the right edge of the chart； prices have just shot up to their declining EMA。 They deserved a rally after sliding from 100 to below 70； but a very high reading of the Thermometer； three times above average； indicates that the excitement is overdone； a pause is ing； and the downtrend is about to resume。
在图的右边，价格涨到正在下跌的均线处。当价格从100跌到70时，应该有一个上涨，但是温度值很高，是均线的3倍，表明超买了，需要暂停一下，要继续下跌。
Get ready for an explosive move if the Thermometer stays below its moving average for five to seven trading days。 Quiet markets put amateurs to sleep。 They bee careless and stop watching prices。 Volatility and volume fall； and professionals get a chance to run away with the market。 Explosive moves often erupt from periods of inactivity。
如果温度在均线之下长达5——7个交易日，做好大波动的准备。平静的市场让业余选手都睡着了，他们大意了，不再看价格。波动和成交量下跌，专业人士可以跟上市场的大波动。爆炸式的波动经常是在平静时爆发的。
Market Thermometer can help you set a profit target for the next trading day。 If you are a short…term trader and are long； add the value of today’s Thermometer EMA to yesterday’s high and place a sell order there。 If you are short； subtract the value of the Thermometer’s EMA from yesterday’s low and place an order to cover at that level。
市场温度可以帮助你确定第二天的赢利目标。如果你是短线交易者，是做多的，把昨天最高点加上温度均线的值，在那里下单卖出。如果你是做空的，把昨天最低点减去温度均线的值，在那里回补。
I had two purposes in presenting the Market Thermometer。 I wanted to give you a new indicator； but even more I wanted to show you how to use your understanding of the markets to design your own analytic tools。 Once you understand the principles of market analysis； you can create your own indicators。 Use your knowledge； understanding； and discipline to get on the right side of the markets。
我提出市场温度有2个目的。我希望给你一个新指标，但更重要的是我想告诉你如何学习市场，设计自己的分析工具。一旦你知道了如何分析市场，你可以设计自己的指标。利用你的知识，经验和纪律去顺应市场。
EXITING TRADES
出场
Whenever you enter a trade； three factors must be crystal clear in your mind … where to get in； where to take profits； and where to bail out in case of an emergency。 Daydreaming about profits will not make you rich。 You must decide in advance where you’ll take your winnings off the table or cut and run if the market turns against you。
无论何时你进场，你必须清楚3点——何处进场，何处兑现利润，当出现紧急情况时，何处出场。梦想发财并不能让你致富。你必须提前想到，何时带着赢利离开赌桌，或者是市场对你不利时，如何逃跑。
Beginners keep looking for promising trades and assume that finding them will make them money。 They search for entries； while professionals spend a lot of time and energy planning their exits。 They always ask themselves where to take profits or cut losses。 Survivors know the essential truth … you don’t get paid for entering trades； you get paid for exiting them。
新手总是在寻找有保证的交易，以为这样就能赚钱了。他们寻找进场点，然而专业人士花很多时间研究如何出场。他们经常问自己，在何处兑现利润，在何处止损。生存者知道关键的事实——进场不会赚钱，出场会赚钱。
Why think about an exit before you enter a trade？ Isn’t it better to get in； monitor the trade； and exit in response to price action？ There are two main arguments for deciding on an exit before you enter a trade。
为什么要在进场前研究出场？先进场，观察仓位，根据价格波动再出场，不是更好吗？在你进场前，有2件事要搞清楚。
First； knowing your targets and stops allows you to weigh rewards and risks。 If you have a clear signal to buy； with a price target of 2 above and a stop 4 below； is that trade worth taking？ Do you want to risk 4 to gain 2？ Price targets and stops prompt you to focus only on trades whose potential rewards far outweigh the risks。 The ability to walk away from a potential trade is as important as the ability to decline a drink when you want。
首先，知道了利润目标和止损点就能计算回报和风险。如果你有明显的买入信号，利润目标是2元，止损是4元，值得交易吗？你愿意承受4元的风险而去赚2元吗？利润目标和止损点能让你专注于风险低，回报大的交易。放弃交易机会的能力和放弃喝酒的能力一样重要。
Second； setting profit targets and stops before entering trades helps sidestep the pernicious “ownership effect。” We get attached to things we own and lose objectivity。 That old ratty jacket hanging in your closet should have been given to the Salvation Army years ago。 That trade you entered last week is starting to e apart at the seams。 Why don’t you chuck it？ You own both the jacket and the trade； they feel fortable； familiar。 That’s why you need to decide on exits before you enter； before a trade bees yours。
第二，在进场前定好利润目标和止损点就躲开了致命的“拥有者效应”。我们对自己拥有的东西有依赖心理，容易失去主观。挂在衣橱里面的破甲克，几年前就应该送给救世军。上周建的仓位现在已经出现亏损了。为什么不放弃呢？因为你拥有夹克和仓位，你感觉很舒服。所以要在仓位被你拥有之前就定好出场点。
A friend who is a top…notch technical analyst temporarily took a job as a broker after falling on hard times when his hedge fund closed。 Naturally； I moved one of my accounts to him。 Whenever I called to place an order； he would not let me hang up unless I gave him a stop。 Sometimes I’d plead for a little more time and he’d take my order； on the condition that I call back within five minutes to give him a stop； or else he would call me。 Six months later he found work as a technical analyst； and I have never seen another broker like him since。 He really stressed the need to know your safety parameters before you took on market risk。
我有个朋友，他是顶尖的技术分析师。他大亏了几次，只好解散了自己的对冲基金，找了一个临时工作，做经纪人。很自然，我就把我的部分账户转到他的公司。每次当我打电话给他下单时，如果我不告诉他止损点，他是不会挂电话的。有时我会求他，让他多给点时间给我，他就先接受我的订单，如果我没有在5分钟之内告诉他止损点，他就会打电话找我要。半年后他找了一个技术分析的工作，我再也没见过像他这样的经纪人。他确实强调了，在承受风险之前，要知道你的安全区域。
Before entering a trade； you should set two specific price levels； a target and a stop； one above and the other below current prices。 This is all you need for a short…term trade； where you shoot at a clearly visible target。 You may find a broker who accepts OCO （one cancels other） orders。 Then； if your profit target is hit； the stop is automatically cancelled； and vice versa。 If your broker does not accept OCO orders； give him your stop and keep an eye on your profit target。
在进场前，你应该明确2个具体的价格，目标利润点和止损点，一个在市价之上，一个在市价之下。做短线时，这是你所要知道的所有方面。你也许会发现有些经纪人接受这样的订单，一个成交，另一个就自动撤销。如果价格碰到你的利润目标，止损单就自动撤销，反之也一样。如果你的经纪人不接受这样的订单，你就告诉他你的止损点，同时死盯着自己的利润目标。
What if you’re planning a fairly long…term trade that may last for several days or even weeks？ Profit targets shift with the passage of time； and protective stops need to be tightened as the trade moves in your favor。 You must write down your rules for exiting trades and follow them from that piece of paper without arguing； haggling； or hoping f