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Futures used to be called modities； the irreducible building blocks of the economy。 Old…timers used to say that a modity was something that hurt when you dropped it on your foot … gold； sugar； wheat； crude oil。 In recent decades many financial instruments began to trade like modities … currencies； bonds； stock indexes。 The term futures includes traditional modities along with new financial instruments。
过去期货叫商品，是经济中不可缺少的元素。过去人们喜欢说商品就是你掉在地上砸自己脚的东西——黄金，糖，小麦，原油。最近几十年，很多金融工具开始出现，它们类似商品——外汇，债券，股指期货。期货这个说法包括了传统的商品和新的金融工具。
A future is a contract to deliver or accept delivery of a specific quantity of a modity by a certain date。 A futures contract is binding on both buyer and seller。 In options the buyer has the right but not an obligation to take delivery。 If you buy a call or a put； you can walk away if you like。 In futures； you have no such luxury。 If the market goes against you； you have to add money to your margin or get out of your trade at a loss。 Futures are stricter than options but are priced better for traders。
期货就是一个合约，这份合约规定在未来的确定日期交割确定数量的商品。一份期货合约同时绑定了买家和卖家。如果是期权，买家有权利接受交割，但不是义务。如果你买了看涨期权或者看跌期权，你也可以随时出场。但是期货不同。如果市场对你不利，你需要追加保证金，或者是止损出场。期货比期权严格，但是价格适合交易者。
Buying a stock makes you a part owner of a pany。 When you buy a futures contract you don’t own anything； but enter into a binding contract for a future purchase of merchandise； be it a carload of wheat or a sheaf of Treasury bonds。 The person who sells you that contract assumes the obligation to deliver。 The money you pay for a stock goes to the seller； but in futures your margin money stays with the broker as a security； ensuring you’ll accept delivery when your contract es due。 They used to call margin money honest money。 While in stocks you pay interest for margin borrowing； in futures you can collect interest on your margin。
买入股票，你就成了一个公司的拥有者。当你买入期货合约时，你并不拥有什么，只是买了一个合约，合约规定未来的商品买卖，比如是一车小麦，或者是一些债券。卖给你的人有义务交割。买股票时，你的钱给了卖家。但是买期货时，你的保证金在经纪公司那里作为保证，以保证你的合约到期时，你会接受交割。他们喜欢说保证金是诚实的金钱。买股票时，如果你借用保证金，是要支付利息的，买期货时，你的保证金可以为你带来利息。
Each futures contract has a settlement date； with different dates selling for different prices。 Some professionals analyze their differences to predict reversals。 Most futures traders do not wait and close out their contracts early； settling profits and losses in cash。 Still； the existence of a delivery date forces people to act； providing a useful reality check。 A person may sit on a losing stock for ten years； deluding himself it is only a paper loss。 In futures； reality； in the form of the settlement date； always intrudes on a daydreamer。
每份期货合约都有一个确定的日期，不同的日期代表不同的价格。有些专业人士会分析它们的差别以找到反转点。大部分期货交易者都不会等太久，它们会提前把期货卖掉，利润和亏损都是用现金结算的。期货的交割日期决定了很多人要去兑现，故需要检查现实的状况。一个人可以持有亏损的股票长达10年，欺骗自己说这只是账面亏损。对于期货，只要日期到了，一相情愿的人就惨了。
To understand how futures work； let’s pare a futures trade with a cash trade … buying or selling a quantity of a modity outright。 Let’s say it’s February and gold is trading at 400 an ounce。 Your analysis indicates it is likely to rise to 420 within weeks。 With 40；000 you can buy a 100…ounce gold bar from a dealer。 If your analysis is correct； in a few weeks your gold will be worth 42；000。 You can sell it and make a 2；000 profit； or 5 percent before missions … nice。 Now let’s see what happens if you trade futures based on the same analysis。
为了了解期货的原理，我们拿期货和现金交易对比——买卖一些商品。假如说2月黄金的价格是400元/盎司。你的分析是说它很可能在几周内涨到420元。你可以用40000元买100盎司。如果你的分析是对的，你的黄金在几周内会涨到42000元。你可以把它卖掉并得到2000元的利润，或者是5％的利润，未扣除手续费——很不错。好了，我们再来看看，如果分析是对的，期货是什么样子。
Since it is February； April is the next delivery month for gold。 One futures contract covers 100 oz。 of gold； with a value of 40；000。 The margin on this contract is only 1；000。 In other words； you can control 40；000 worth of gold with a 1；000 deposit。 If your analysis is correct and gold rallies 20 per oz。； you’ll make roughly the same profit as you would have made had you bought 100 oz。 of gold for cash … 2；000。 Only now your profit is not 5％ but 200％； since your margin was 1；000。 Futures can really boost your gains！
现在是2月，4月是黄金期货的交割月。一份期货合约代表100盎司的黄金，价值就是40000元。保证金只要1000元。换句话说，你用1000元控制了价值40000元的黄金。如果你的分析正确，黄金真的涨了20元/盎司，你买了100盎司，你就会赚到同样的利润，现金就是2000元。现在你的利润不是5％，而是200％，因为你的保证金只交了1000元。期货真的能提高收入。
Most people； once they understand how futures work； are flooded with greed。 An amateur with 40；000 calls his broker and tells him to buy 40 contracts！ If his analysis is correct and gold rallies to 420； he’ll make 2；000 per contract； or 80；000。 He’ll triple his money in a few weeks！ If he repeats this just a few times； he’ll be a millionaire before the end of the year！ Such dreams of easy money ruin gamblers。 What； if anything； do they overlook？
大部分人，如果明白了期货的原理，就会变得非常贪婪。一个有40000元的业余选手会打电话给他的经纪人，要求买40份合约！如果他的分析正确，黄金涨到了420元，他每份合约能赚2000元，一共能赚80000元。只要几周时间，他的资金就翻倍了！如果他再重复做几次，在年底之前他就是百万富翁了！这样的赚钱梦害了赌徒们。那么，他们忽视了什么？
The trouble with markets is that they don’t move in straight lines。 Charts are full of false breakouts； false reversals； and flat trading ranges。 Gold may well rise from 400/oz。 to 420/oz。； but it is perfectly capable of dipping to 390 along the way。 That 10 dip would have created a 1；000 paper loss for someone who bought 100 oz。 of gold for cash。 For a futures trader who holds a 100 oz。 contract on a 1；000 margin that 10 decline represents a total wipeout。 Long before he reaches that sad point； his broker will call and ask for more margin money。 If you have mitted most of your equity to a trade； you’ll have no reserves and your broker will sell you out。
最麻烦的就是市场并不按照直线走。图表充满了假突破，假反转以及横盘。黄金也许会从400元/盎司涨到420元/盎司，但也有可能在这个过程中跌到390元。如果有人买了100盎司，那么这10元的下跌会造成1000元的账面亏损。对于期货交易者，如果买了100盎司，10美元的下跌意味着出局。在他出局之前，他的经纪人就会打电话给他，要求他补保证金。如果你已经投入了大部分资金，没有更多的资金投入，你的经纪人会帮你平仓。
Gamblers dream of fat profits； margin themselves to the hilt； and get kicked out of the game by the first wiggle that goes against them。 Their long…term analysis may be right and gold may rise to its target price； but the beginner is doomed because he mits too much of his equity and has very thin reserves。 Futures do not kill traders … poor money management kills traders。
赌徒都梦想暴利，把所有的保证金送到刀口上，市场的第一次反向波动就把他清理出局了。也许他们的长期分析是对的，黄金也许会涨到目标价格，但是新手还是遭殃了，因为他投入的保证金太多了，没有回旋的余地。期货不会让交易者破产——糟糕的资金管理会让交易者破产。
Futures can be very attractive for those who have strong money management skills。 They promise high rates of return but demand ice…cold discipline。 When you first approach trading； you are better off with slower…moving stocks。 Once you have matured as a trader； take a look at futures。 They may be right for you if you’re very disciplined。 We return to the futures markets in Part 2 and look at the best ones for getting started。
对于资金管理能力特别好的人来说，期货很有吸引力。他们运用冰冷的纪律，却能取得很高的回报。如果你刚开始交易，还是建议你选择变动慢的股票。一旦你成为一个成熟的交易者，建议你研究一下期货。如果你非常有纪律，期货会适合你的。我们会在第2部分谈期货，也会谈如何起步。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE？ Winning in the Futures Markets by George Angell is the best introductory book for futures traders。 （It is highly superior to all his other books。） The Futures Game by Teweles and Jones is a mini…encyclopedia that has educated generations of futures traders （be sure to get the latest edition）。 Economics of Futures Trading by Thomas A。 Hieronymus is probably the most profound book on futures； but it’s long been out of print … try finding a used copy。
能告诉我如何开始吗？乔治·安吉尔写的《期货教战守策》（张轶：台版译名）是最好的入门书（他写的其它书都没这本好）。理查德·j·特维莱斯和弗兰克·j·琼斯写的《期货赛局》（张轶注：台版译名，国内翻译成《期货交易实用指南》）是一本小百科全书，已经教育了几代期货交易者（一定要买最新版）。托马斯·A·海欧纳莫斯写的《期货交易经济》恐怕是最深刻的期货书，但是早就绝版了——尽量去找2手的。
OPTIONS
期权
An option is a bet that a specific stock； index； or future will reach or exceed a specific price within a specific time。 Please stop and reread that sentence。 Notice that the word specific