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势，这样他们不会犯错。他们不知道趋势，即使他们知道如何提前抓住趋势，他们也不敢印刷，他们害怕犯错，害怕被人说是无知。交易者只要使用资金管理，是不害怕犯错的，但是记者无法承受这个风险。当他们开始报道趋势时，趋势早就开始了，波动厉害，很难控制风险，很有可能要反转。
Should you trade stocks or futures； currencies or options？ Options are rough for beginners； who should learn to trade the underlying securities first； whether stocks or futures。 People outside the United States are often drawn to currencies； forgetting that those are truly global markets； and when you trade them； you go against banks that have traders in all time zones。 The choice between stocks or futures is seldom made on a rational basis。 Trading stocks seems more respectable； while futures have more of a swashbuckling reputation。 Futures get their wild image from their enormous leverage。 If you scrupulously observe money management rules； they bee much safer and less nerve…racking。
你应该交易哪个，股票，期货，外汇，期权？期权对新手来说很难，他应该交易对应的证券，股票或期货。美国以外的人喜欢外汇，外汇是真正的全球市场，当你交易时，你在和银行交手，银行在全球都有操盘手。股票看起来很好，期货有恃强凌弱的名声。期货靠杠杆出名。如果你很懂资金管理，期货就会变得安全和从容的。
Stocks
股票
Stocks tend to move more slowly than futures； thus reducing risks for beginners； especially those who avoid margin。 It is one of the mysteries of markets that cash traders are more likely to win； and margin traders to lose。 Why？ Interest rates on margin loans are a serious expense； raising a barrier to winning； but there’s more。 People who buy stocks for cash tend to feel more relaxed； buying as much or as little as they want。 Margin traders are more likely to feel stressed。 An anxious trader is a troubled trader。 It is better to buy only what you can afford； polish your skills； and the money will follow。
股票一般比期货动的慢，这样就降低了新手的风险，尤其是对于不使用保证金的人。市场的神秘就是用现金交易的人一般会赢，用保证金交易的会输。为什么？保证金借款利息很高，成为赢钱的障碍，但还有其它原因。人们用现金买股票一般很轻松，想买多少就买多少。用保证金的交易者一般压力大。紧张的交易者是有麻烦的交易者。最好是有多少钱买多少，加强技术，钱就来了。
The sheer number of stocks drives people to distraction。 Beginners throw their arms in the air and beg for a list of stocks to follow。 A disciplined trader makes several choices that help him concentrate。 He begins by selecting an industry group or groups and then zeros in on individual stocks。
股票让人们充满想象。新手双手向天祈祷给他一些消息股。有纪律的交易者通过几个选择以使自己聚焦。他先选择一些工业股或股票池，然后单独研究。
A beginner should start with one or two groups； an intermediate trader can go up to four or five； and an expert knows how many he can handle。 Chances are； he sticks to the few groups he knows well。 Begin by choosing a group that you think has a great future or one in which you have a personal interest。 For example； you may decide to concentrate on biotechnology because of its promise or the hospitality industry because that’s where you work。
新手应该选择1，2个股票池，好点的交易者可以选择4，5个股票池，专业人士知道他可以处理多少个。最好是，选择自己熟悉的行业。选择你认为有前途的行业，或者是你喜欢的行业。比如，你也许想关注于生物科技，或者是酒店行业，因为你在这个行业工作。
Select a broad rather than a narrow group。 For example； if you decide to track autos； look not just at car manufacturers； but also at panies that make auto parts； tires； etc。 The disadvantage of focusing on a single group is that you miss spectacular moves in others； but there are several advantages。 You learn which stocks tend to lead or follow。 When leaders start to move； they give you an advance signal to trade the laggards。 You can use relative strength； that is； buy the strongest stocks when the group moves up and short the weakest on the way down。 You can create an index that includes all the stocks you follow in your industry group； and then analyze that index。 This analytic tool is not available to any other trader。 If you use fundamental analysis； then having your finger on the pulse of a single industry； such as software； puts you miles ahead of petitors who trade Microsoft today and McDonald’s tomorrow。
选择一个范围广的行业，而不是窄的行业。比如，如果你选择汽车行业，不要仅仅研究汽车工业，还要研究生产汽车零件，轮胎的行业等。只关注一个行业的劣势就是你会错过其它行业的大波动，还有其它的劣势。你可以研究那些股票是领头羊，那些是跟着涨的，然后再研究指数。没有人有这样的分析工具。如果是使用基本面分析，研究专门的行业，比如软件业，这样就比那些今天交易微软，明天交易麦当劳的对手强多了。
A broadly defined industry group may include over a hundred stocks； but an intelligent beginner should not follow more than a dozen。 We can divide all stocks into blue chips and speculative “cats and dogs。” Blue chips are the stocks of large； well…established panies； held by many institutions and followed by many researchers。 They have a fairly well…established consensus of value around which they more or less gently oscillate。 If you design a system for catching their swings several times each year； the potential gains can be very attractive。 Don’t ignore the big Dow…type stocks。 Their orderly swings from the moving average to the channel wall create good trading opportunities。
一个宽广的行业也许包括100多个股票，但是聪明的新手知道只要跟踪十几个。我们可以把股票分为蓝筹股和低价股。蓝筹股就是大公司，著名公司的股票，很多机构和研究者都持有。它们的价值好，振荡小。如果你能设计一个系统，一年抓住几次波动，这样的收益也很吸引人。不要忘记了道琼斯指数里面的股票。它们在通道里有序的波动形成了很好的交易机会。
The so…called cats and dogs may spend months； if not years； flat at the bottom； in a speculative doghouse； until a fundamental change； or even a rumor of change； propels them to a breakout and a new uptrend。 Other cats and dogs may go nowhere or expire。 Those stocks offer much higher percentage gains than blue chips； but the risks are greater and you must spend a great deal of time waiting for them to move。 It makes sense to trade a large portion of your account in blue chips； while keeping a smaller portion in longer…term speculative positions。
低价股需要几个月，如果不是几年的话，在底部横盘。如果没有基本面的变化，或者是谣言的变化，是没人推动它们突破形成新趋势的。其它的低价股也不知道走哪里去了，或者就退市了。这样的股票产生的收益比蓝筹股高，但是风险也大，你需要大量的时间等待它们的动作。理性的做法是用大部分钱做蓝筹股，用小部分钱做投机股。
What if you’ve paid your dues； learned to trade a few stocks in a few groups； and now want to forage in wider pastures？ After all； technical patterns and signals are not all that different in various markets。 What if you want to scan a larger number of stocks for MACD divergences； Impulse breakouts； or other patterns that you learned to recognize； trust； and trade？
如果你已经花了一些钱，研究并交易了一些股票，现在想扩大寻找范围，会如何？总体而言，技术模式和信号在不同市场不是完全不同。如果你想用你学过的MACD背离，突破或其它模式来分析大量股票，会如何？
Go on the Internet and find a website that gives you the 100 most active stocks on the NASDAQ （and if you do not know how to find such a website； you haven’t got what it takes to trade them）。 Keep an eye on any stock that floats by you。 A newspaper article mentions several panies … look up their stocks。 People at a party talk about stocks … jot them down； drop them into your system； and see how they look on your screen。 Many tips call for an exercise of contrary thinking。 In summer 2001； Lucent （LU） was in the news with another earnings disappointment； having slid from 80 to 6。 The journalists were aghast； but that stock has pleted its bear market； traced an attractive bullish divergence； and was poised for a rally。 A rise from 6 to 9 is a 50％ increase。 Stocks that people tout at parties are often good candidates for shorting。 By the time outsiders bee interested； the rise tends to be over。 The idea is to maintain your curiosity and use tips not on their face value but only as invitations to look at this or that stock。 I find that my yield； the percentage of tips that I end up trading in either direction； is about 5％ … I end up trading one out of 20。 I have a friend； a brilliant trader； who often calls me asking to take a look at this or that stock。 My yield on her tips is 10％ … she is the best。
上网，网上有网站告诉你纳斯达克的100只最活跃的股票（如果你不会找，那么你就没有交易的基础）。仔细研究股票。报纸提到了几家公司——看看它们的股票。聚会时人们谈到了几个股票——找到它们，放入你的系统，看看它们的表现如何。有些提示告诉我们要逆向思考。2001年夏天，新闻说朗讯的收益下降，价格从80跌到6。记者都吓坏了，但是股票已经完成了下跌，跟踪到了看涨背离，准备上涨。从6涨到9就等于涨了50％。人们在聚会是推荐的股票一般是做空的备选股。当外面的人都产生兴趣时，上涨一般快结束了。要保持好奇，但不要被股票的表面价值影响，要多看看，合理利用消息。根据我的经验，我利用消息的比例是5％——20个消息，我只会交易一个。我有一个朋友，总是打电话给我，叫我看这个股票，看那个股票。她提供的消息，我采用的比例是10％——她是最好的。
The Turnover Ratio The Turnover Ratio （TRO） predicts expected volatility of any stock by paring its average daily volume with the available float。 This formula was brought to my attention by Roger Perry of The RightLine Report （rightli