按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
或新思想，很可能引起大涨，而比较老的公司则不太可能出现这个现象。一个小公司可能在一个想法或产品上下赌注，如果大众领情买入，就会飙涨；如果大众不领情，就只能爬在地上。如果大型的跨国公司发明了新东西，股价很少动，因为对于大公司来说，单一的产品不会造成很大的不同。
The lure of big trends makes stocks of small panies in promising new industries attractive to trend traders。 Swing traders should select their candidates from among the most actively traded stocks on major exchanges。 Look for large…cap stocks which swing within broad； well…defined channels。
对于趋势交易者来说，有前景的小公司是有吸引力的。波段交易会则应该选择大型交易所里面的活跃股票。寻找大块头，交易区间宽广，容易使用通道的股票。
Once you choose a stock； don’t assume it will continue to behave the same way forever。 panies change； and you must stay on top of your picks。 For example； DELL； started by Michael Dell in his college dorm room； used to be a tiny public pany； but grew into one of the largest puter firms in the world。 A friend of mine bought 50；000 worth of Dell in the early 1990s and cashed out three years later at 2。3 million； but DELL’s days of spiking through the roof and doubling twice a year are gone。 Instead； this widely held stock has bee a vehicle for swing traders； and not a very active one at that。
一旦你选择了一只股票，不要以为它永远这样。公司在变化，你的选择也要变化。比如戴尔电脑，麦克·戴尔在大学宿舍创立了这个公司，过去是小公司，但是它成长为全世界最大的电脑公司之一。我的一个朋友在90年代买了50000元的戴尔，3年后兑现为230万，但是那种直飞云天，一年2倍的日子过去了。相反，这种大家都持有的股票成为波段交易者的工具，波动不是很激烈。
A beginning trader is better off learning to catch swings； because profit targets and stops are clearer； feedback es faster； and money management is easier。 The choice between trend trading and swing trading is partly objective and partly subjective。 Should you trade trends or swings？ My impression； after meeting thousands of traders and investors； is that the elite tend to trade the big moves and ride major trends； but people who can do it successfully are few and far between。 There are many more traders who make money … sometimes very serious money … by trading swings。 The principles of Triple Screen work for both； even though the entries and especially the exits are different。
新手最好先学习抓波段，因为利润目标和止损都很清晰，回报快，资金管理简单。选择趋势交易或波段交易，部分主观，部分客观。你应该交易趋势还是波段？根据我和几千个交易者，投资者沟通的经验，精英一般交易大波动，但是能做到这点的人很少。还有很多交易者都能赚钱——有时能赚很多钱——通过波段交易。三重滤网对2者都有用，只是进场点，尤其是出场点不同。
TREND TRADING Trend trading means holding your positions for a long time； sometimes for months。 It requires holding while your stocks react against the main trend。 Bull and bear markets are driven by shifts in the fundamentals； such as new technologies and discoveries in the case of stocks； weather patterns in the case of agricultural markets； political shifts in the case of currencies； and so on。 Fundamental factors are behind bull and bear markets； but prices move only in response to actions by traders and investors。 When your fundamental information forecasts a major move； you need to analyze the charts to see whether the technicals confirm the fundamentals。
趋势交易 意味着长期持有仓位，有时是几个月。当价格相反于主趋势时也要持有。上涨和下跌是因为基本面在变化，比如股票市场的新科技，新发明，农业市场的天气变化，外汇市场的政治变化等等。基本面因素躲在上涨和下跌的市场后面，但是价格对交易者和投资者的行动直接起反映。当基本面信息预测到大波动时，你要分析图表，看看技术是否确认了基本面。
A market doesn’t send you an invitation before it takes off。 When a trend first climbs out of the cellar； few people pay attention。 Amateurs are fast asleep； while professionals monitor their markets and scan for breakouts and divergences。 Active markets get into the news because the lows and especially the highs attract journalists。 One of the key differences between the pros and the outsiders is that the pros always track their markets； while amateurs wake up and look at charts only after a market hits the news。 By that time the train has already left the station。 The ABC Rating System； described on page 255； can help you handle the challenge of tracking stocks through inactive periods。
市场是不会在起飞前给你发邀请函的。当市场开始走出低谷时，只有很少的人能注意到。业余选手还在睡觉，而专业人士还在忙着找突破和背离。活跃的市场对新闻反映快，因为记者喜欢在最低点，尤其是最高点报道。专业人士和场外人的关键区别是，专业人士一直在跟踪市场，然而业余选手是等到了消息再醒过来看图表。此时火车已经离站了。ABC评分系统能帮助你在不活跃的时候跟踪股票。
A new breakout is easy to recognize but hard to trade and even harder to hold。 As a trend speeds up； more and more people pray for a pullback。 The stronger the trend； the less likely it is to acmodate bargain hunters。 It takes a lot of patience and confidence to hold a position in a trend。 Traders tend to be active men with the attitude of “don’t just sit there； do something。” Learning to be passive es hard to them。 One reason women tend to trade better is that they are more likely to be patient。
新的突破很容易被识别出来，但是很难交易，持有更难。当趋势加速时，越来越多的人祈祷回调。趋势越强，它越不可能和别人讨价还价。在趋势中需要很大的耐心和自信以持有仓位。交易者一般都有这个倾向“不要坐在那里，做点什么。”对他们来说，被动是很难的。女性能交易的比较好的一个原因就是她们有耐心。
How can you teach yourself to trade trends？ You may begin by studying historical charts； but remember； there is no substitute for experience。 The idea is to learn by doing。 Start by putting on positions so small that you can be relaxed and not tie your mind into a knot。 Trade only a few hundred shares or a single futures contract while you’re learning。
你如何学会趋势交易？你可以开始学习历史图表，但记住，经验是无法替代的。行动比学习重要。一开始可以交易自己很放心的小仓位。在学习阶段只交易几百股或一份期货合约。
To apply Triple Screen to trend trading； monitor long…term charts for breakouts or look for well…established moves； identified by a weekly EMA。 When the weeklies tell you to be bullish or bearish； return to the dailies and use oscillators to find entry points。 Put on long positions in up…trends when prices touch their rising daily EMA and keep adding on pullbacks。 You can also add when daily oscillators； such as MACD…Histogram or Force Index； give buy signals； especially when they coincide with pullbacks。 Reverse the procedure in downtrends。 When the weekly trend is down and daily oscillators rally and reach overbought levels； they signal to sell short； especially when they coincide with rallies to the EMA。
在趋势交易时使用三重滤网，监视长期图表寻找突破，或通过周均线的确认寻找波动。当周线图告诉你上涨或下跌时，回到日线图，用振荡指标找进场点。在上涨趋势中，当价格碰到上涨的日均线时建仓，在回调时不断加仓。你也可以增加日线的振荡指标，比如MACD柱，或力量指数，当它们在回调冲突时，你能得到买入信号。下跌时则相反。当周线图上趋势是下跌，日线图上振荡指标上涨并到达超买水平，信号是做空，尤其是它们和均线冲突时。
The idea is to position yourself in the direction of the market tide and use the waves that go against that tide to build up your initial position。 As a beginner； learn to trade a single small position； but once you start making money； the size of your positions and the number of additions bee a function of money management。
顺着市场的浪潮交易，在回滚的浪潮建仓。作为新手，学习交易小仓位，一旦你开始用现金交易，仓位的大小和加仓的大小都成为资金管理的功能。
Once you recognize a new trend； get in！ New trends； springing out of trading ranges； are notoriously fast； with few or no pullbacks。 If you think you have identified a new trend； hop aboard。 You can reduce your risk by trading a smaller size； but do not wait for a deep pullback。 Those may e later； and you will be able to add to your position。 Jumping aboard a new trend feels counterintuitive； but being in the market makes you more alert to its behavior。 The great George Soros was only half…joking when he said； “Buy first； investigate later。”
一旦你认出了新趋势，上车！横盘时出现的新趋势非常快，很少回调，甚至不回调。如果你认为你确认了新趋势，上车。你可以通过小仓位来减少风险，但不要等到大回调。大回调也许会迟点来，那时你要加仓。跳进新趋势有点违反直觉，但是身在市场更要警惕。伟大的乔治·索罗斯半开玩笑地说：“先买，再研究。”
Place your initial stop at the breakout level； where the new trend erupted from the range。 A rocket that takes off from its launching pad has no business sinking back to the ground。 Do not hurry to move your initial stop。 Wait for a reaction and then a new move before moving your stop to the bottom of that reaction。 The SafeZone stops； which work so well for swings； are much too tight for big trends。 While riding a tide； you must expect the waves to swing against you and still hold your position。
止损下在突破处，新趋势突破横盘的地方。火箭脱离发射塔以后，没有必要再回到地面。不要急着移动止损。等回调，回调以上还会上涨，在回调的底部止损。安全区域止损，对波段交易作用大，对于趋势交易来说，则太紧了。当你趋势交易时，在回调时要继续持有仓位。
Trend trading means retaining your initial position through thick and thin。 You are fishing for very big fish； and you need plenty of room。 One of