按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
杆导致过度投机，会导致可怕的崩跌。在1929年以前，投机者可以用10％的保证金买股票，在牛市作用巨大，在熊市就要被洗出局了。
Margins of only three to five percent are mon in the futures markets。 Here you can bet big with little money。 If you have 30；000； you can control 1；000；000 worth of merchandise； be it pork bellies or gold。 If you catch a 1％ move in your market； you’ll make 10；000； or over 30％ profit on your account。 A few trades like that； and you’ve made it。 A small trader looks at these numbers and thinks he’s found the secret to getting rich quick。 There is only one problem。 Before that market rises 1％ it may dip 2％。 It may be a meaningless blip； but at the bottom the amateur’s equity will be nearly wiped out； and his broker will sell him out on a margin call。 He’ll go bust even though his price forecast was correct。
在期货市场，只用3％——5％的保证金很正常。你可以用小钱大赌。如果你有30000元，你可以控制价值1000000元的商品，不管是猪肉，还是黄金。如果你抓住了市场的1％，你就赚了10000，或者是你账户30％的利润。如果这样交易几次，你就成功了。小交易者看着这些数字，它认为发现了致富的秘诀。还有一个问题。在上涨1％之前可能要下跌2％。也许这只是没有任何含义的小跌，但是业余选手的资金机会被洗光了，他的经纪人会催他补交保证金。即使他的预测正确，它也会出局。
The mortality rate among futures traders is over 90 percent； even though brokerage houses try to hide statistics。 Easy margins attract gamblers and adrenaline addicts who quickly go up in smoke。 There is nothing wrong with trading futures that money management won’t cure。 Futures are very tradable； as long as you observe money management rules and do not go crazy with an easy margin。 You have to be more than disciplined … to trade modities you must be colder than a freezer。 If you cannot follow money management rules； better go to Las Vegas。 The entertainment value is just as high and the oute is the same； but the drinks are free and the floor show more glitzy。
虽然期货经纪公司总是隐瞒统计数字，期货交易者的阵亡率还是超过了90％。高杠杆吸引了赌徒和追求刺激的人，他们很快就花成了烟。资金管理可以处理好期货交易的错误之处。只要你使用好资金管理原则，不滥用高杠杆，期货是很好交易的。你要非常有纪律——要交易期货，你必须比冰箱还要冷酷。如果你不能遵守资金管理原则，还是去拉斯维加斯吧。既然结果一样，拉斯维加斯的娱乐价值更高，饮料也是免费的，场内的表演也很炫目。
Precisely because they require a high degree of discipline and excellent money management skills； futures markets are hard for beginners。 A new trader is better off learning to trade slower…moving stocks； but later on； futures definitely deserve a look。
因为需要极高的纪律性和优秀的资金管理技巧，期货市场对新手来说就很难。新手最好还是交易运动缓慢的股票，但是到了以后，期货绝对值得你去看看。
If you know how to trade and want to make a quick fortune； futures are the place to be。 You may put on small initial positions； fenced in by strict money management rules； but then you can pyramid them to the hilt as a trade moves in your favor and you keep moving stops beyond breakeven and adding new contracts。
如果你知道如何交易，想赚快钱，期货是个好地方。你可以建很小的仓位，用严格的资金管理原则保护它，如果市场对你有利，你可以金字塔加仓，你可以在赚钱的前提下移动止损。
There are only a few dozen futures； making the choice of which to trade much easier than among the thousands of stocks。 Be sure to focus on markets in your own time zone。 It is shocking how many beginners； especially outside the United States； want to trade currencies。 Few of them stop to think that this is a 24…hour market； operating around the clock； in which an individual trader has many disadvantages。 You may brilliantly analyze a currency and forecast a move； but that move is just as likely to take place in another time zone while you are sleeping。 Try to select markets that trade in your time zone that are open when you are awake and closed when you’re asleep。
市场只有几十个期货市场，与几千只股票相比，比较好选。记住要选你所在时区的市场。很多新手，尤其是美国以外的，想交易外汇，这是很吃惊的。他们很少想到这是24小时的市场，个人交易者的劣势太多了。你也许成功地分析了外汇，预测到了波动，当时它在你睡觉的时候发生了。尽力选择你所在时区的市场，你醒着时，它是开盘的，你睡着时，它是收盘的。
It is a good idea to make your first steps in those markets where you know something about the fundamentals。 If you are a cattle rancher； a house builder； or a loan officer； then cattle； lumber； or interest rate futures are logical starting points； if you can afford to trade them。 If you have no particular interests； your choice is limited only by your account size。 It is important to make your first steps in relatively inexpensive markets。 All markets have a certain amount of random noise； or quick countertrend moves。 The high dollar value of random moves in expensive markets can be deadly。
最好是一开始交易你比较了解基本面的市场。如果你是养牛的，建房子的，放贷款的，那么牛，木材，利率期货就是合理的下手点。如果你没什么特殊的爱好，那么你就选择你所在时区的市场。最好一开始做便宜的市场。每个市场都有随机噪音，或快速回调。昂贵市场高价的随即波动可能是致命的。
Take yourself through a simple exercise。 Create a spreadsheet on your puter and write down the names of several futures markets that interest you in column A。 Write the value of their price units in column B。 Corn trades in cents； and the value of a cent is 50； S&P trades in points； and the value of a point is 250； so those values go into column B。 Write the latest closing price in column C。 Now plete the exercise by creating column D which multiplies B by C and shows how much each contract is worth。 How much more expensive is the richest contract pared to the cheapest contract？ Five times？ Ten？ Twenty？ Thirty？ Do the exercise and find out。
你要简单练习一下。在你的电脑上做一个电子表格，在A栏记下几个你喜欢的期货名字。在B栏写下他们的单价。玉米的价格用分表示，1分代表50元。标准普尔股指期货用点表示，1点是250元，B栏就这样表示价值。在C栏写下最近的收盘价。最后在D栏计算B栏和C栏的相乘的结果，看看一份合约价值多少。最贵的合约比最便宜的合约贵多少？5倍？10倍？20倍？30倍？自己做练习以找到答案。
Beginners are drawn to the S&P 500 futures； but few have accounts large enough for proper money management in this expensive market。 In North America； corn； sugar； and； in a slow year； copper are good markets for beginners； allowing you to learn in your own time zone。 They are liquid； reasonably volatile； and not too expensive。
新手喜欢做标注普尔500股指期货，但是在这个昂贵的市场，很少人的账户有足够的资金做好资金管理。在北美，玉米，白糖，铜都适合新手，方便你在自己的时区学习。它们流动性好，波动合理，也不贵。
Some very good books； listed on page ； have been written about futures。 Most technical analysis tools were originally developed for futures and only later migrated to the stock market。 Let us review a few aspects of futures that make them different from stocks。
一些好书，都谈了期货。很多技术分析工具本来是为期货发明的，后来才移植到股票。让我们来看看一些期货和股票不同的方面。
CONTANGO AND INVERSION All futures markets offer contracts for several delivery months at the same time。 For example； you can buy or sell wheat for delivery in September or December of this year； March of next year； and so on。 Normally； the nearby months are less expensive than the faraway months； and that relationship is called a contango market。
溢价和反转 所有的期货市场都提供不同交割期的合约。比如，你可以买卖9月交割的小麦，或买卖今年12月交割，明年3月交割的小麦，等等。通常，近期合约比远期合约便宜，这个关系叫溢价市场。
Higher prices for longer…term contracts reflect the so…called cost of carry； that is； the cost of financing； storing； and insuring a modity。 A futures buyer plunks down his 3％ margin and controls a contract without having to bring the rest of the money until the settlement date。 Meanwhile the seller has to store； finance； and insure the merchandise。
长期合约的价格高，反映了运输成本，也就是商品的财务成本，仓储成本和保险成本。期货买家用3％的保证金控制了合约，在交割期之前并不需要交其它的费用。同时，卖家需要支付仓储，财务，保险等费用。
The differences between delivery months are called premiums。 Hedgers and floor traders closely watch premiums because they reflect the degree of tightness in the market。 When the supply shrinks or the demand rises； people start paying up for the nearby months。 The premium for the faraway months begins to shrink。 As the demand grows； the front months bee pricier than faraway months … the market bees inverted！ This is one of the strongest fundamental signs of a bull market。 There is a real shortage out there； and people are paying extra to get their stuff sooner rather than later。
交割月之间的不同叫溢价。对冲者和场内交易者都关注溢价，因为它们反映了市场的紧张程度。当供应减少，需求上涨时，人们开始加钱买近期合约。远期的溢价开始下跌。当需求上涨，近期合约比远期合约贵——市场反转了！这是上涨市场基本面的强烈信号。有真实的库存在那里，人们愿意花高价快点得到它，而不是慢点得到。
Whenever you look at the modity page of a financial newspaper； move your finger down the column of closing prices and look for inversions。 They signal bull markets； and that’s when you want to use technical analysis to look for buying opportunities。
无论何时你看财经报纸上的商品期货，顺着收盘价那栏往下看，以寻找反转。他们是上涨的信号，你想用技术分析找买点的方法就是这个方法。
Serious hedgers do not wa