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在美国的谷物市场，春夏播种，生长时，只要干旱，洪水，害虫影响了供应，期货价格就往上刺出，像钉子一样。交易者说农民在收割前就把自己的作物亏损了3次。一旦收割期到了，供应明确了，需求就会推动市场。需求推动的市场通道很窄，利润目标很小。在季节变化时，要重新调节通道的参数和交易战术。懒惰的交易者搞不懂为何他的工具不工作了。聪明的交易者为季节变化准备了新工具，老工具明年再用。
FLOOR AND CEILING The fundamental analysis of futures is more straight… forward than that of stocks。 Most analysts monitor supplies since demand changes very slowly。 What is the planted acreage？ What are the warehouse stocks？ What is the weather forecast for the growing areas？ Fundamentals put a floor underneath most； though not all； modities。 They also have a natural ceiling above which they almost never rise。
地板价和天花板价 期货的基本面分析师比股票直接。大部分分析师都是观察供应，因为需求变的慢。种了多少亩？仓库在哪里？成长期的天气如何？基本派给大多数商品定了地板价。他们还有一个永远涨不到的天花板价。
The floor depends on the cost of production。 When the market price of a modity； be it gold or sugar； falls below that level； miners stop digging and farmers stop planting。 Some third…world governments； desperate for dollars and trying to avoid social unrest； may subsidize production； paying locals in worthless currency and dumping the product on the world market。 Still； if enough producers go broke and quit； the supply will shrink and prices will rise to draw in new suppliers。 If you take 20…year charts of most modities； you’ll see that the same price areas have served as a floor year after year。 Curiously enough； those levels have held without being adjusted for inflation。
地板价依赖于生产成本。当商品的价格跌到了成本以下，不管是黄金，还是白糖，工人就不挖矿了，农民就不种植了。一些第三世界国家的政府，他们需要美元，为了防止社会动荡，他们会用廉价的本国货币补贴生产，把产品倾销到世界市场。然而，当足够的生产商破产或退出后，供应就下降了，价格又会上涨，吸引新的供应商加入。如果你看大部分商品的20年图，你会发现同样的价格年复一年地充当地板价。奇怪的是，即使通货膨胀了，这些水平也不随之改变。
The ceiling depends on the cost of substitution。 If the price of a modity rises； major industrial consumers will start switching away from it。 If soybean meal； a major animal feed； bees too expensive； the demand will switch to fishmeal； if sugar bees too costly； the demand will switch to other sweeteners。
天花板价依赖于替代物的成本。如果一个商品的价格上涨，主要工业用户就会换到其它商品上。大豆是动物的饲料，如果它变得很贵，需求就会转向鱼饲料。如果糖变得太贵，需求就会转向其它甜东西。
Why don’t more people trade against those levels？ Why don’t they buy near the floor and short near the ceiling； profiting from what is similar to shooting fish in a barrel？ First of all； the floor and the ceiling are not set in stone； and markets may briefly violate them。 Even more importantly； human psychology works against those trades。 Most speculators find it impossible to sell short a market that is boiling near the high or go long a market after it has crashed。
为什么大部分人不根据这个水平反向交易？为什么他们不在地板价买入，在天花板价做空，这和从桶里钓鱼一样简单啊？首先，地板价和天花板价并不是固定的，市场的波动会改变它们。更重要的是，人类心理拒绝这样的交易。大部分投机者发现在高点附近很难做空，在市场崩跌后也不敢做多。
SEASONALS Most modities fluctuate through the seasons。 For example； grains tend to be cheapest soon after the harvest； when the supply is plentiful and the demand pretty well known。 The spring planting season； when the ing weather is uncertain； is the most likely time for price spikes。 Freezing spells in the northern parts of the United States are bullish for heating oil futures。 Orange juice futures used to have wild runups during the frosts in Florida； but have bee much more sedate with the growth of orange production in Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere。
天气 大部分商品在不同的天气波动。比如，当供应充足，需求明确时，一般收割后的谷物是最便宜的。春天天气不确定，价格会上涨。美国北方的寒冷造成取暖油的上涨。佛罗里达霜冻时橙汁期货猛涨，当南半球巴西的橙子成长时期货就平静了。
For some； seasonal trading degenerates into calendar trading。 Spinning past data to find that a certain market should be bought during the first week of March and sold on the last week of August is a misuse of technology。 It is easy to find what worked in the past； but any pattern that has no justification in the fundamentals or mass psychology probably is due to market noise。 Seasonal trades take advantage of annual swings； but you have to be careful。 They shift from year to year； and seasonal trades must be put through the filter of technical analysis。
对于一些人，季节交易变成了日历交易。看看数据会发现在3月的第一周要买入，8月的最后一周要卖出，这是对技术的误用。看过去很容易知道什么方法有效，但是基本面无法分析的模式或大众心里是要制造噪音的。季节性交易比每年做波段强，但是你要小心。它们每年都在变化，季节性交易也要通过技术分析的过滤。
OPEN INTEREST All exchanges report trading volumes； but futures exchanges also report open interest； that is； the number of contracts outstanding on any given day； reported a day later。 In the stock market the number of outstanding shares doesn’t change； unless a pany issues more or repurchases existing ones。 In the futures markets； a new contract is created whenever a new buyer and a new seller e together。 If both of them get out of their positions； a contract disappears。 Open interest goes up and down each day； and its changes provide important clues to the mitments of bulls and bears。
未平仓合约 所有的交易所都报告成交量，但一些交易所也有未平仓合约报告，也就是第二天还没有平仓的合约。在股市持仓量是不变的，除非公司发行了很多股票，或自己回购了股票。在期货市场，当买家和卖家走到一起时，才有新合约的产生。如果双方都平仓，合约就消失了。每天的未平仓合约都在变化，它的变化暗示了多头和空头的持仓量。
Every futures contract has a buyer and a seller； a winner and a loser。 Rising open interest shows more winners are ing into that market。 Just as important； it shows more losers are ing in； because without their money there would be nothing for winners to win。 An uptrend in open interest reflects a rising level of mitment on all sides and indicates that a trend is likely to continue。 A downtrend in the open interest shows that winners are taking away their chips； while losers are accepting losses and quitting the game。 Falling open interest shows that the trend is being weaker； which is a valuable piece of information when you need to decide whether to stay or take profits。
每份期货合约都有一个买家和一个卖家，一个赢家和一个输家。上涨的未平仓合约表明有很多赢家进场。同样重要地，它表明更多的输家进场，因为没有输家的钱，赢家就赢不到钱。上涨趋势的未平仓合约反映了双方的持仓量，表明趋势要继续。下得趋势的未平仓合约表明赢家拿走了筹码，输家接受了亏损，开始退出游戏。下跌的未平仓合约表明趋势变弱了，当你决定是否要兑现利润时，这个是有价值的信息。
SHORTING Few traders active today were in stocks in 1929； but the after… shocks of that year’s crash still impact us。 The government responded to the hue and cry of the hurt and angry public。 Among its many acts was an attempt to root out evil short sellers； accused of driving stocks down。 It promulgated the uptick rule； which allows shorting a stock only after it has ticked up。 The bad bears can no longer hammer down innocent stocks with their sell orders。 They may only sell short stocks that are rising。 How about a parallel law to outlaw buying stocks that have ticked up and permitting people to buy only after a downtick； to prevent excessive bullishness？
做空 1929年交易股票的人，很少有人今天还在活跃交易，但是当年的崩跌还在冲击我们。政府对受伤愤怒的大众做了反应。其中一些法律就是想尽力去除邪恶的空头，怪他们把股票砸下去的。政府颁布了上涨做空法律，只有在股票上涨后才可以做空。这样坏蛋空头就再也不能把无辜的股票往下砸了。他们只能做空上涨的股票。有没有平行的法律啊，股票上涨了就不准再涨，只有等股票跌了才能涨，这样可以防止疯狂的多头？
The uptick rule is an example of a bad law passed in response to mass hysteria。 It is short…sighted because during bear moves it is the short sellers who break declines with their profit taking。 There is no uptick rule in the futures markets。 A futures trader is much more likely to be fortable shorting than a stock trader。
上涨做空法律是在大众疯狂时通过的糟糕法律。这个法律没有远见，因为它不知道在下跌时，只有空头兑现利润时才会终止下跌。在期货市场没有上涨做空法律。期货交易者可以很舒服地做空。
In stocks； most people are long and very few are short。 Exchanges report short interest each month； which almost never rises into double digits。 In futures； short interest is always 100％ … there is a short contract for every long because if someone is buying a contract for future delivery； someone else has to sell them a contract for future delivery； that is； go short。 You have to feel fortable shorting if you want to trade futures。
在股市，大部分人都是做多，很少人做空。交易所每月公布未平仓空头报告，这个数字从来没有涨到过2位数字。在期货市场，未平仓空头经常是100％——每个多头合约都有一个空头合约，因为一个人买入合约等交割，另外一个人就要卖给它合约并交割，那就是做空。如果你做期货，你对做空是感觉舒服的。
LIMIT MOVES Now that the stock market has its own “circuit breakers；” fewer newers to futures are shocked to discover that most have daily limits beyond which pri