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360
600
是
铜
250
1。05
525
600
是
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50
2。60
260
600
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50
2。50
250
600
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50
6。50
650
600
否
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600
0。30
360
600
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豆粕
100
2。60
520
600
是
THE 6％ RULE … PROTECTION FROM PIRANHAS
6％原则——防食人鱼
It used to puzzle me why institutional traders as a group performed so much better than private traders。 An average private trader is a 50…year…old married； college…educated man； often a business owner or a professional。 You would think this thoughtful； puter…literate； book…reading individual would run circles around some loud 25…year…old with minimal training who used to play ball in college and hasn’t read a book since his junior year。 In fact； the lifetime of most private traders is measured in months； while institutional traders continue to make money for their firms year after year。 Is it because of their fast reflexes？ Not really； because young private traders wash out just as fast as older ones。 Nor do institutional traders win because of training； which is skimpy in most firms。
令我不解的是，为什么机构交易者的表现比个人交易者要好那么多。个人交易者一般都是50岁左右，已婚，大学毕业，通常是某一方面的专家，或者有自己的公司。你可以仔细思考一下，为什么那些精通计算机，整天读书的人们会围着25岁左右，在大学时经常玩球，毕业后就再没读过书的人们团团转。实际上，大多数个人交易者的交易寿命是以月为度量单位的，而机构交易者却年复一年为他们的公司赚进大笔的钱。是因为他们反应敏捷吗？不对，年轻的个人交易者也像年龄大的一样被淘汰。要不就是因为机构交易者有大量的培训机会，但事实上大多数公司都吝啬得很。
Institutional traders who make a lot of money sometimes decide to go out on their own。 They quit the firm； lease the same gear； trade the same system； stay in touch with their contacts … and fail。 A few months later； most cowboys are back in head…hunters’ offices； looking for a trading job。 How e they make money for the firms but not for themselves？
一些机构交易者，在为公司赚了一大笔钱以后，就想自己出去单干。他们退出公司后，在同样的市场，用同样的交易系统交易，并与他们的同行保持密切联系——等待他们的却是失败。几个月后，大部分牛仔们又回到猎头公司去找操盘的工作。为什么他们能为公司赚钱，却不能为自己赚钱呢？
When an institutional trader quits his firm； he leaves behind his manager； the person in charge of discipline and risk control。 That manager sets the maximum risk per trade for each trader。 That is similar to what a private trader can do with the 2％ Rule。 Firms operate from huge capital bases； and the risk limit is much higher in dollar terms but tiny in percentage terms。 A trader who violates that limit is fired。 A private trader can break the 2％ Rule and hide it； but a manager watches his traders like a hawk。 A private trader can throw confirmation slips in a shoebox； but a trading manager quickly gets rid of impulsive people。 He saves institutional traders from disastrous losses； which destroy many private accounts。
当一个机构交易者辞职以后，就离开了那个帮他掌握纪律和控制风险的经理。那个经理为每个交易者的每笔交易设定最大风险，这类似个人交易者的2％原则。投资公司资金雄厚，其风险上限金额如果以美元计的话非常大，但占总资本的百分比却很小。如果交易者越过那个上限，则将被辞退。个人交易者可以打破2％原则，并自欺欺人地隐瞒起来，但投资公司的经理却像老鹰一样一直盯着他的交易者。个人交易者可以把原则扔进鞋盒里，但经理很快就会把那些容易冲动的交易者辞退，他使机构交易者免受重大亏损，而正是这种重大亏损使得许多个人账户破产。
In addition； a trading manager sets the maximum allowed monthly drawdown for each trader。 When an employee sinks to that level； his trading privileges are suspended for the rest of the month。 We all go through cycles。 Sometimes we’re in gear with the markets； and everything we touch turns to gold。 At other times we are out of sync； and everything we touch turns into a pletely different substance。 You may think you’re hot； but when you keep losing； it is the market’s way of saying you’re cold。
另外，经理还为每个交易者设置了当月最大允许亏损额。当某个交易者的亏损达到那个水平时，在那个月的剩余时间里，会暂时取消他的交易权利。我们总在不停地绕圈，有时我们与市场之间非常和偕，有种点石成金的感觉。而有时我们却与市场不同步，所过之处都是障碍重重。你可能认为自己是正确的，但当你持续亏损时，就是市场在以其独特的方式说你是错误的。
Most private traders on a losing streak keep trying to trade their way out of a hole。 A loser thinks a successful trade is just around the corner； and that his luck is about to turn。 He keeps putting on more trades and increases his size； all the while digging himself a deeper hole in the ice。 The sensible thing to do would be to reduce your trading size and then stop and review your system。 A trading manager breaks his traders’ losing streaks by forcing them to stop after they reach their monthly loss limit。 Imagine being in a room with co…workers who are actively trading； while you sharpen pencils and run out for sandwiches。 Traders do all in their power to avoid being in that spot。 This social pressure creates a serious incentive not to lose。
大多数个人交易者在持有正在亏损的仓位时，竭力想打成平局。输家认为一笔成功交易即将来临，他就要时来运转了。他不断增加交易次数，不断增加交易金额，其实是在自掘坟墓。明智的做法应该是减小交易金额，并停下来检查一下自己的系统。经理在其交易者达到当月最大亏损额时会强迫他们退出交易。想象一下，在一间办公室里，同事们都在不停地交易，而你却在削铅笔，然后跑出去买三明治。交易者们竭力避免出现那种情况。这种环境压力激励他们不要亏损。
A friend who used to manage a trading department in London had a woman on his team who was a very good trader。 Once； she hit a losing streak and by the middle of the month was nearing her loss limit。 My friend knew he would have to suspend her trading privileges； but she was very high…strung and he did not want to hurt her feelings。 He found a course on treasury management in Washington； DC； and sent her there for the rest of the month。 Most managers are not so gentle。 Gentle or rough； the monthly loss limit saves traders from death by piranha bites … a nasty series of small losses that can add up to a disaster。
我的一个朋友曾在伦敦管理过一个交易部门，其中有一个非常精明能干的女交易者。有时，她碰上一个亏损的仓位，不到月中便接近她的亏损上限。我的朋友知道自己必须取消她的交易权利，但由于她非常敏感，所以我的朋友不想伤害她的感情。他在华盛顿找到一个财务管理的课程，然后派她去学习，以渡过那个月中剩下的日子。大多数经理都不会那么温和。不管是温和还是粗暴，当月亏损限制都使交易者们免受食人鱼的威胁——一连串恶性的亏损加起来将是致命的。
The piranha is a tropical river fish； not much bigger than a man’s hand； but with a mean set of teeth。 It doesn’t look very dangerous； but if a dog； a person； or a donkey stumbles into a tropical stream； a pack of piranhas can attack him with such a mass of bites that the victim collapses。 A bull can walk into a river； get attacked by piranhas； and a few minutes later only its skeleton will be bobbing in the water。 A trader keeps sharks at bay with the 2％ Rule； but he still needs protection from the piranhas。 The 6％ Rule will save you from being nibbled to death。
食人鱼是一种热带的淡水鱼，比人的手稍大一点但有一排整齐的牙齿。它看起来并不可怕，但如果有一只狗、一个人或一只猴子失足掉进河里，一排食人鱼就会过来攻击它，不停地咬食，直到受害者粉身碎骨。一头牛可能会走到河里，受到食人鱼的攻击，几分钟后就会看到它的骨架在水中映出的亮光了。交易者用2％原则抵挡鲨鱼的攻击，还必须用6％原则来保护自己，不受食人鱼的蚕食。
Whenever the value of your account dips 6％ below its closing value at the end of last month； stop trading for the rest of this month。 Calculate your equity each day； including cash； cash equivalents； and current market value of all open positions in your account。 Stop trading as soon as your equity dips 6％ below where it stood on the last day of the previous month。 Close all positions that may still be open and spend the rest of that month on the sidelines。 Continue to monitor the markets； keep track of your favorite stocks and indicators； and paper trade if you wish。 Review your trading system。 Was this losing streak just a fluke or did it expose a flaw in your system？
只要你的账户资余比上个月底少6％，这个月的剩余时间就停止交易。每天都要计算资金，包括你账户中的现金，保证金和所有仓位的当前市值。只要你的资本亏损额接近上月最后一天资本的6％，就立即停止交易。清仓，并在场外度过当月剩余的时间。继续监视市场，跟踪你喜欢的股票和指标，如果你愿意的话，可以做些模拟交易。重新审视你的交易系统。这次失利是一次意外，还是你的系统本身有缺陷？
People who leave institutions know how to trade； but their discipline is external； not internal。 They quickly lose money without their managers。 Private traders have no managers。 This is why you need your own system of discipline。 The 2％ Rule will save you from a disastrous loss； while the 6％ Rule will save you from a series of losses。 The 6％ Rule forces you to do something most people cannot do on their own … stop losing streaks。
那些离开公司的交易者知道如何交易，但他们的纪律是外部的，不是内部的。没有他们的经理在场，他们很快就在交易中亏损。个人交易者没有经理。这就是为什么你需要有自己的纪律的原因。2％原则将使你免受致命亏损的影响，而6％原则将帮你逃脱一连串的亏损。6％原则强制你做大部分人不能自觉去做的事情——停止亏损的倾向。
Using the 6％ Rule； along with the 2％ Rule； is like having your own trading manager。 Let us review